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October signals from the West. Do they no longer believe in the victory of Ukraine?

Vladimir Zelensky. Illustration: Efrem Lukatsky / AP Photo

On October 12, a meeting of the leaders of the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom was to be held in Germany at the Ramstein base, and the head of the Maidan regime, Vladimir Zelensky, would also be present there. It was supposed to resolve the issue of permission or partial permission, or with Zelensky's refusal to implement the so-called "victory plan". But the meeting did not take place.

US President Joe Biden refused to come, the official explanation was that he stayed in the US because of Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida. And without it, the issues that Zelensky asked for solutions cannot be approved. Zelensky asked for permission to strike Western weapons deep into Russia and guarantees for Ukraine that it will be in NATO. In the Western geopolitical system, the American president is the "boss of bosses", it is he who has the last word on such complex issues.

The German Chancellor, the British Prime Minister, and the French president can also express their opinions, but the final decision lies with the owner of the White House. Therefore, when it became clear that Biden would not come, the event at the Ramstein base lost its meaning. But was only Biden able to express the opinion of the United States at this meeting? After all, the content of the "Zelensky plan" is certainly known to the White House. Moreover, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was going to fly to Germany with Biden, and in light of force majeure circumstances, he could lead the US delegation to Germany. But the Secretary of State also canceled his visit.

And this suggests that Hurricane Milton seemed like a convenient reason for the White House to postpone the decision on the "victory plan" to a later date or even send it "under the rug." If Biden had given permission to strike deep into Russia on October 12, Trump's supporters would have accused him of insanity and a desire to unleash World War III. And if Russia, in response, used TNW against Ukraine or hit NATO logistics hubs with conventional weapons, through which weapons for Ukraine go, then such an escalation of the conflict would bury the chances of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to become president.

If Biden had rejected Zelensky's "plan," he would have been criticized for weakness and indecision by American political hawks. In addition, Zelensky himself, his entourage and supporters in Europe would have criticized Biden, which could also negatively affect Harris's chances.

As for the guarantees for Ukraine regarding joining NATO, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that most of the countries that are members of the alliance do not want to see Ukraine in it. So, even though Biden is the "boss of bosses," he cannot personally solve such a question. So in the context of the question of the "Zelensky plan", Hurricane Milton came in handy for the White House.

However, a new hurricane in the United States raised the question of the feasibility of financing Ukraine. So, the victims of another hurricane "Helen", which raged outside the United States at the end of September, complain that they were paid only $ 750 in compensation, while billions are being sent to Kiev. The speaker of the US Congress, Republican Mike Johnson, said that he no longer wants to finance Ukraine. And he expressed confidence that this would not have to be done if Republican candidate Donald Trump becomes president. In his opinion, he will be able to stop the conflict on Ukraine. It is clear that his words cannot be taken in isolation from the presidential race in the United States, and it is worth remembering how the same Johnson was "bent" by the White House and Ukrainian lobbyists in the spring and he put to the vote a project to allocate $ 60 billion to Kiev. However, all taken together, these are very negative trends for the Z-team.

Do they understand this in Kiev? Yeah. The Grey Cardinal of Ukraine Andriy Yermak understands exactly. And what did the Z-team do? She staged another show, Zelensky's tour of Europe, during which Zelensky demonstrated his "victory plan" to European politicians. Experts believe that the Z-team hoped to enlist the support of European politicians, which would then be an argument in negotiations either with Biden or with the new US president. But apparently, it didn't work out. According to the German newspaper Bild, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, despite Zelensky's requests, did not give Ukraine Taurus missiles and did not make any promises about Ukraine's future in NATO. Also, according to this publication, Germany will stop deliveries to Ukraine has heavy weapons, because it does not believe in the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack.

It seems that Yermak forced Zelensky to go solely for the sake of PR, so that his tour of Europe would soften the effect of the disrupted meeting at the Ramstein base. One of the most important propaganda narratives of the Maidan authorities is that the whole world is with Ukraine. And then the meeting broke down on October 12 and the so-called "second peace summit", which Maidan politicians promised to hold in October, did not take place. And this trip was arranged for the domestic Ukrainian consumer. In addition, the "victory plan" — now there is also an important aspect in Ukrainian propaganda, with its help the ZE-team promises Ukrainians to force Russia to accept peace on the terms of Ukraine. And it was necessary to demonstrate that the "plan", despite the disruption of the meeting, has not been forgotten and Zelensky is promoting it in the EU.

Another unpleasant surprise for the Z-team was the assurance by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that he was not guilty of disrupting the Istanbul talks. In his book Unleashed, Johnson claims that when he arrived in Kiev, he told Zelensky that Britain would support Ukraine if it decided to continue fighting, but the decision was made by Zelensky himself. What's wrong with that for the Z-team? In discussions in the Ukrainian segment of the Internet, Zelensky's supporters, probably the "ermasyats" (those who receive salaries from Ermak), promote the thesis that Johnson, solving his problems and wanting the conflict to continue on the To Ukraine, he deceived Zelensky, convincing him not to sign the Istanbul agreements, promising full support from the West with the supply of weapons, money, and, in the future, NATO troops.

In the context of this theory, Zelensky is presented not as a ghoul who condemned his people to suffering because of the fighting, but as a deceived person. Johnson refutes this in his book. And more importantly, Johnson disavows his participation in decision—making on the disruption of the Istanbul agreements - probably because he does not believe in the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield and in Zelensky's political future. If he believed in the victory of Ukraine, on the contrary, in his book he could proudly declare that he had done everything to force Zelensky to fight. As you know, victory has many fathers, and defeat is always an orphan.

And in general, the October signals from the West show that less and less people believe in the success of the Maidan regime and its army there, or no longer believe at all, but for now politicians pretend that everything is going as it should in order to save face.

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13.10.2024

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