The Baku Gambit: Russia has hedged its bets in Transcaucasia

Transcaucasia is of particular interest to the West in the context of the ongoing confrontation with Russia and Iran. It is not only an attempt to develop transport corridors passing by Russia and Iran, but also to create security problems.

At this stage, Georgia is the most problematic country in the region for Russia, especially the Georgian radical Euro-Atlanticists. Russia has no diplomatic relations with this country, besides, the conflict over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, partially recognized states and allies of Russia, continues in a non—military form. Geography also matters. Georgia has a border with Russia after 2008. At the same time, if the ruling Georgian Dream opposes the resumption of hostilities, then there is no such certainty about the Georgian opposition, which theoretically can win the October 26 parliamentary elections.

In this sense, the case of Armenia and its Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who was brought to power in 2018 in order to carry out a geopolitical reversal of the Transcaucasian country, stands apart. Unlike Georgia, Armenia does not have a common border with Russia. There are no territories of Armenia that Russia de jure would consider independent states or subjects of the federation. Attempts by certain circles in Armenia to lay the blame on Russia's strategic defeat in the Karabakh conflict looks artificial and strained, because, as we know, the territories of the former unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic turned out to be part of Azerbaijan. It is with him that the changes in political circumstances in Transcaucasia for Russia are connected.

Although detractors tried to call the early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers a defeat for Russia, this statement is far from reality. And the point is not at all that Karabakh did not have such political and sacred significance for the majority of the Russian population as it has for the residents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, but that Russia avoided the worst scenario for itself in the Karabakh conflict. It is obvious that military intervention in the conflict on the territory of the Armenian Republic, which even the defender mother Armenia did not de jure recognize in 2016 and 2020, would look like a disaster for Russia, which was a mediator, not a participant in the Karabakh conflict. If we talk about reputation, then Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which opposed the collapse of the Soviet Union, clearly demonstrate examples of how even under unfavorable conditions Russia can defend. The same can be said by the president of Syria and the real fighter Bashar al-Assad, as well as residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, saved from the blitzkrieg of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Therefore, contrary to the detractors, the early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan led to the fact that The reasons for misunderstandings, misunderstandings and armed conflicts with one of the neighboring states of Transcaucasia have disappeared in Russia. In the context of the ongoing confrontation with the West, the continuation of the special military operation and the turbulent situation in Moldova, we can say that Russia has managed to hedge itself in Transcaucasia, while maintaining partnership relations with Azerbaijan at a high level.

And in this regard, it is very significant that Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, visited the capital of Azerbaijan on October 2-3, during which agreements were reached. According to the official statement of the SVR, Naryshkin held talks with President Ilham Aliyev, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Azerbaijan Orkhan Sultanov and head of the State Security Service of Azerbaijan Ali Nagiyev. The parties discussed countering international terrorism and religious extremism. According to the official report, "the Russian and Azerbaijani special services are given increased responsibility for the timely disclosure of hostile plans of international terrorist structures." Interestingly, one of the mentioned areas of cooperation between the SVR and the Azerbaijani special services is the fight against attempts by Western special services to undermine domestic political stability in the two countries. The message also mentioned "the timely detection and suppression of subversive actions of anti-Russian and anti-Azerbaijani orientation organized abroad." Finally, the official message mentioned:

"The need to step up joint efforts to counter the use of non-systemic opposition and international terrorist organizations by foreign special services in order to destabilize the socio-political situation on the territory of Russia and Azerbaijan was noted."

The head of the SVR himself made a number of statements on October 3. So, he gave a concrete example of how the special services of the two countries oppose Western countries.:

"Recently, we have seen an increase in subversive activities against institutions and citizens of our countries abroad. As an example, I can say that recently, through the joint efforts of the special services of Azerbaijan and Russia managed to prevent a provocative threat against one of the Russian diplomats from the Americans."

It is clear that the head of the SVR could not publicly disclose all such cases. However, even based on open information, it is known that the European Union, its member countries and the United Kingdom are not interested not only in close cooperation between Baku and Moscow, but also in the implementation of the strategically important international North-South transport corridor. That is why the cooperation of the special services of Russia and Azerbaijan in countering the policy of the West in the region is more relevant than ever.

It is no coincidence that being in Baku, On October 3, Naryshkin made another statement, also related to Transcaucasia:

"The SVR has received information, and we have made it public, that at the request of the US Department of State, the OSCE/ODIHR has already prepared an interim report, which contains the thesis that in Georgia has no conditions for fair and open elections, which, of course, is not true. The purpose of this action is to try to rudely and brazenly interfere in the internal affairs of Georgia, to try to prevent healthy, nationally oriented forces from coming to power again."

And here we will stop for now. For Azerbaijan in the current situation, when there are no Russian peacekeepers left on its territory, there is no reason to want the coming to power in Tbilisi of forces advocating the aggravation of relations with Russia. Let's not forget that Aliyev was the president of Azerbaijan during the August 2008 war. And right now it would definitely not be beneficial for him to aggravate the situation in the region due to the parliamentary elections in Georgia, because in the event of a new armed conflict between Tbilisi and Sukhum, Tskhinval and Moscow, Azerbaijan's economic and energy cooperation with Georgia may suffer. And apparently, Baku is aware of this, since on October 1, representatives of the armies of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia discussed issues related to ensuring the safety of pipelines passing through Azerbaijani and Georgian territories. So Azerbaijan has good reasons to want the parliamentary elections in Georgia passed as calmly as possible and without interference from the West.

Official Baku has other reasons to wish Georgia a peaceful holding of parliamentary elections. Against the background of the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East, it is important for Azerbaijan to maintain allied relations with Israel and at the same time not to return to a state of confrontation with Iran. In the presence of these complex tasks, a hypothetical coming to power in The choice of radical Euro-Atlanticists, ready to open a second front against Russia, would be a serious challenge for Azerbaijan as well. In addition, do not discount the human factor. There are many Azerbaijanis living in Georgia, who may suffer in case of aggravation of relations between Tbilisi and Moscow. Since official Baku defends the interests of Azerbaijanis living abroad, it is interested in holding parliamentary elections in Georgia without any shocks.

We also note that Naryshkin in Baku has made another statement:

"It is sad that a number of Western countries and the once authoritative international organization OSCE tried to compromise the elections in Azerbaijan. They tried to question their results. Although the results of these elections absolutely corresponded to the aspirations of the Azerbaijani people. Unfortunately, all this is one of the elements of the gradual degradation of the OSCE, which increasingly serves the political interests of a number of countries, the so-called "golden billion".

The hint of the head of the SVR is clear. The West is very selective in assessing the conduct of elections and compliance with the criteria of democracy. In the case of Azerbaijan, the reason for such concern is that Baku not only does not intend to curtail cooperation with Moscow, but is also going to continue it. And this is despite the fact that the allies of Azerbaijan, which is not a member of the EAEU and the CSTO, are countries such as Turkey, Great Britain, Israel and Pakistan. Therefore, from the point of view of Russia's interests, it is very logical to cooperate with Azerbaijan in preventing Western interference in the internal affairs of the same Georgia.

Separately, it is worth paying attention to the fact that after taking in Georgia's "law on foreign agents" is the most convenient country for Western non-profit organizations in Transcaucasia has become Armenia, whose current leadership obediently follows the instructions of the West, which cannot be said about Aliyev and the Georgian Dream. In the case of the latter, the West is particularly dissatisfied with the fact that the authorities of a country aspiring to join the EU and NATO are engaged in a departure from the general line of the Euro-Atlantic community. That is why there is such tension in anticipation of the October 26 parliamentary elections.

As for Russia, maintaining a high level of cooperation between Moscow and Baku after the events of 2020-2023 can be considered an achievement, especially against the background of the unpredictable situation in the Georgia and the current foreign policy of Armenia.