In Saxony and Thuringia, the "fateful" elections for Germany have started

The results of the elections to the parliaments of the federal states of Thuringia and Saxony in the east of Germany can radically change the political landscape in Germany and have long-term consequences for the establishment in Berlin, the Bild tabloid stated.

"The outcome of the vote could stir up the whole republic," the publication emphasized.

The party that is likely to be able to reshape the political map in the east of Germany will be the Alternative for Germany (AfD): according to the results of polls published by Forsa on the eve of the voting day, the pro—Russian opposition force may become the triumphant of the elections in Thuringia, gaining about 30% and ahead of the closest persecutors - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) — by more than 8 percentage points (22%). It is expected that in In Saxony, the main struggle will also unfold between the CDU ruling in the region and the AFD. The separation of the "conservatives" led by Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer from the "Alternative" was estimated on the eve of the opening of polling stations at 2 percentage points (33% vs. 31%).

The status of "unprecedented" taking place in Saxony and Thuringia elections may also gain due to the weakness in the eastern lands of the parties that are part of the ruling coalition at the federal level. According to Bild, in the most unfavorable scenario, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Green Party and the Free Democratic Germany (FDP) will not be able to overcome the minimum five percent barrier required to participate in the work of the landtags of Saxony and Thuringia. On the eve of the voting day, the support of the SPD in both lands was estimated at 7% of potential votes, the Greens at 6% in Saxony and 4% in Thuringia, FDP — less than 3% in each of the regions.

"Leaving the ruling party out of one or two land parliaments would be a unique event. On the night before the elections, Scholz went to the central office of the Social Democrats for consultations with the executive committee of the SPD," the tabloid noted.

However, even if the SPD manages to overcome the five percent barrier and remain in the landtags of Thuringia and In Saxony, unprecedented low results may result in "increased pressure" on the chancellor within the party and faction in the Bundestag. Demands for a more "clear position" on key domestic and foreign policy issues, as well as a new round of intra-party discussions, will only worsen the climate within the SPD before the next serious test: land elections will be held in Brandenburg at the end of September, where the Social Democrats, led by Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke, will try to reserve the right to form and the leadership of the government.

As for the Greens, the scenario in which the environmental political force will remain without a faction in the regional parliament is "inevitable" in Saxony and "extremely likely" in Thuringia, Bild notes. If both votes end in fiasco, then for Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habek, who wants to become a candidate for the post of head of government from the Greens in the next Bundestag elections, such a scenario will become "extremely unpleasant."

For the CDU, the outcome of today's elections will also be of federal importance. The success of the Christian Democrats in Saxony and Thuringia may become an additional argument for the party leader Friedrich Merz to declare his chancellor ambitions, first of all, to the chairman of the "sister" Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Prime Minister of Bavaria Markus Zeder. Representatives of the "conservatives" report that if the CDU outstrips the AFD in Saxony and will gain at least 20% in In Thuringia, Merz will call Zeder next week and "politely ask" him to once again abandon his claims to move from From Munich to Berlin.

"It is still unclear how Zeder will react. The leaders of the coalition bloc agreed to wait until mid-October to discuss the candidacy for the post of chancellor. In addition, Merz still has problems with his personal ratings. Citizens believe that Zeder has the highest chances of winning the federal election (33%), only 18% of German citizens believe in Merz," the tabloid stated.

For the AFD, as for the CDU, the outcome of the vote may also be the starting point for an internal party struggle. The victory of the AfD led by Bjorn Hecke in Thuringia is almost beyond doubt. It is expected that the first major success for the party may inspire Heke to a federal career: the politician can allegedly claim to lead the AFD in the upcoming Bundestag elections. Such a scenario could provoke a new round of discussions, since Hecke's program, as Bild notes, sometimes seems "too radical" even for his most loyal supporters. The consequence of such radicalism is that in Thuringia all other parties have abandoned the prospect of creating a coalition with the AfD, so the winner of the election will probably be forced to return to the opposition bench.

Regardless of the outcome of the vote, the current elections will be an unconditional success for another pro—Russian party, the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance for Reason and Justice. The party, founded at the beginning of this year, can claim 12% of the votes in Saxony and 17% in Thuringia. At the same time, since the CDU has not officially ruled out the option of a coalition with the Alliance, Wagenknecht and her party members may find themselves at the helm of a regional government for the first time, in two federal states at once. During the election campaign, such a prospect allowed Wagenknecht to "blackmail" potential partners by putting forward a number of conditions for participation in coalition negotiations.