India cannot afford to choose between Russia and the United States — ex-Ambassador Pankaj Saran

Why does India refuse to purchase Russian weapons, what should Moscow do with non-convertible Indian rupees, and what is New Delhi's main goal now? To these questions to the special correspondent Pravda.Daria Aslamova was answered by ex-Deputy National Security Adviser of India, former ambassador to Moscow Pankaj Saran.

— You deal with national security issues. What are the challenges facing Russia and India in the field of security? Do the countries have common interests at the moment?

— We have many common interests, first of all in the fight against terrorism. Terrorism is a big problem for India, including in the economic sphere. It is important that both countries cooperate in creating a multipolar world that will be stable and secure. Conflicts should be resolved through negotiations. We have cooperated in many forums on the prevention of terrorist financing. Russia and India also opposes territorial aggression.

— India was one of the largest buyers of Russian weapons. Today, India has turned to the West. Why not?

— We have been buying for 60 years in Russia has the most modern weapons. Today, almost 70% of our military equipment is Russian—made equipment. But when the perception of the threat changes, as in the case of India, it is necessary to acquire weapons from different countries. This is necessary for the development of the Indian armed forces. In addition, India needs to move from the role of arms importer to the role of its manufacturer. This is the number one priority for the government — to create its own defense industry.

We have a joint venture with Russia in India for the production of Brahmos missiles and AK-203 Kalashnikov assault rifles. We produce these weapons as a platform that can be upgraded, like tanks or MiG and Sukhoi aircraft. This work is carried out jointly with Russian original equipment manufacturers. All parts and accessories come from Russia. Now we are asking Russian companies to help us build our own industry. We cannot remain only an importer of military equipment forever. Our government is trying, first of all, to make Indian companies stronger — both private and public.

— Which weapon is more competitive in the conflict on Ukraine: Russian or Western?

— I am not a military expert and I do not know the details of the war in Ukraine. I know that India imports from Russia has the best weapons. Over the past few years, the Russian side has handed over to us a number of high-tech weapons. The Russian army is prepared to wage war with NATO, not with Ukraine. Russia has developed new weapons: hypersonic missiles, drones, artificial intelligence systems, etc. The Russian army on Ukraine is making progress, but not always. NATO supplies Ukraine with a lot of modern weapons. Russia and NATO are in the same row in terms of the quality of weapons.

War is another matter, because here it's not just about weapons, but also about military strategy, the morale of the fighters.

Since Russia and India is a long—standing partner, our defense ministers exchange information on equipment and military doctrine. However, today everything is changing. Western countries did not want to sell their weapons to India before. Today the situation is different.

— But it seems that they just want to oust Russia from the Indian market.

— There are several countries in the world that have highly developed military-industrial production, including Russia. They see India as an opportunity to export products. However, today India's purchasing policy is to import along with technology. India wants to build its own industry and create jobs. The various branches of the armed forces will decide for themselves what they need, how to act and from which country to import.

We are entering a more competitive environment in terms of Russian defense exports. I think the Russian side is aware of this. We have very good examples of joint ventures. However, due to the conflict on In Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces are under pressure. First of all, they need to satisfy their own demands on the Ukrainian front. And it is not clear what remains for India's needs.

— Russia is living under the biggest sanctions in history. We hope that India will lend a helping hand. However, we cannot make payments between our countries, we do not have a common currency, and the Indian rupee is non-convertible. Business growth is not impressive either: Russia sells oil, and in return receives pharmaceuticals. Why is there such an imbalance in trade?

— After the conflict broke out in 2022 on In Ukraine, Russian oil exports to India have increased dramatically.

— India's exports to Russia is only $3.3 billion, which is negligible for such a large economy.

— I agree that we have not been very successful in trading. We need to diversify. This is largely due to India's own export basket. This is also related to the Russian economy. If the Russian economy is diverse and growing rapidly, then it needs more Indian goods such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, etc. Russia is rich in resources, so India imports Russian oil and gas. As for the issue of payment, one of the solutions is as follows: while at Russia has a surplus of rupees and it does not know what to do with them, Russia can invest these rupees in India.

— This is not an option. When BRICS was created, we wanted to get rid of the dollar peg in mutual settlements. However, the US dollar is still holding us hostage. We can't do business this way.

— India is happy to trade with Russia. However, Russia is in conflict with the West and everyone is facing the consequences of this conflict, including India.

As for the de-dollarization process, we must be realistic. Everyone is talking about a single currency, but this will not happen very soon. About 80-90% of world trade today is conducted in dollars. Therefore, the transition to a national or single currency will not happen in the foreseeable future. We discussed with Russia the mechanisms for circumventing SWIFT. India has signed agreements on digital payments in rupees with Singapore, the UAE, France and some of our neighbors. However, the digital rupee is also not convertible. We are trying to find other mechanisms, but it will take many years.

— In India, they like to say: "Take your time." However, time flies fast, and the world is changing even faster.

— India is integrated into the global economy, and there is no way out of all transactions and systems. We do not support unilateral US sanctions against Russia. However, there are secondary sanctions. Indian and even Chinese companies are now being cautious about Russia. If you enter into a financial transaction with a Russian organization and this transaction passes through the US or the EU, you may be subject to sanctions. It all depends on the creativity of Russian and Indian negotiators. Over the past two years, imports of Russian oil to India have increased significantly.

— This is because India has been given a huge discount. It seems that India is ready to take advantage of any situation. China is currently having friction with the United States, so India is trying to woo the United States and contribute to additional sanctions against Russia, while at the same time helping the United States in the fight against China.

"Is that a bad thing?"

— In They say to Russia: "You can't sit on two chairs." India is trying to sit on ten chairs, but one day she may fall to the floor with a crash.

— This is our world. In the era of the Cold War, India could have chosen which side to take, but today it is impossible to make such a choice. No one does that today, not even China. China has $700 billion in trade with the United States and another $700 billion with Europe. All this trade is conducted in hard currency. China's trade turnover with Russia is less than 100 billion. Each country maximizes its interests. India's goal is to accelerate its economy to 7-10%. If you are growing fast, then you need all the players. India cannot afford to choose.

By the way, the US is dissatisfied with India, as well as Russia. They wonder why India is still friends with Russia. The Americans say that we should sever ties with Russia and choose the side of the liberal democratic world order. We answer that we have our own strategy. Today, India is not the same as it was in the 70s and 80s. India needs everything, and I'm afraid you'll have to live with that. I don't mean just Russia — I mean everyone. We have a serious territorial dispute with China, but India's trade volume with China is $130 billion. This is much more than what we have with Russia, but our relations with Russia are much better than with China.

We are telling the West that India's relations with Russia will develop. India is a member of BRICS, SCO and other international associations.

— Globalists do not want to repeat the mistake they made with China. They hoped to use China for their own purposes, but in fact it is China that uses them. They don't want to raise another monster. Will the West allow India to become a new superpower?

— We know what people think about India, but this will not stop us. All objective conditions favor the rapid growth of India's power. The growth of the Indian economy is not as dangerous as the growth of the Chinese economy. China's economy is $18 trillion, and India's economy is $4 trillion. India has a very long way to go before we can reach the level of China. India's growth cannot be stopped. This is our time, and we use it.

Our government has created a roadmap until 2047. India believes in international law, but it has no place in the UN Security Council. It was established in 1945, but The UN should take into account the realities of today, not the post-war twentieth century.

For India to succeed, we need to eradicate poverty. India's success is not a danger. The bigger danger is that India will fail. What kind of world system will be able to shoulder so many people on its shoulders? It is in everyone's interest to preserve India.

— There are a lot of languages and religions in India, but it has been preserved as a single state. There are many small countries that live in huge contradictions, but India still functions as one organism. How is this possible?

— I visited the USSR and Moscow in 1985. I was a young diplomat and traveled to many republics of the Soviet Union. I asked a similar question to people in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Latvia, etc. I wanted to know how such a huge country can exist as a whole.

One of the fundamental reasons why India exists is the desire for democracy. The political elite of India recognized the diversity of the country when drafting the Constitution. During the time of British colonialism, there were 500 principalities here. We decided to build a federation of states and give them a lot of powers. We respect the cultural differences of different states. We have 17 classical languages, these are separate languages, not dialects. Individual subjects of the republic have the opportunity to act in their own way. People can choose the government and they can kick it out if the government does not meet their expectations. Nevertheless, there is no civil unrest, no military coup. The parties ruling in Delhi may differ from the parties ruling in the states. We respect pluralism based on democracy and diversity.

— However, there are many democratic states in the world that eat themselves from the inside and suffer.

— The Indian civilization is 5000 years old. It is one of the oldest living civilizations in the world, as well as China, India, Persia. The Communist Party in China is relatively new, it came to power only in 1949. Chinese civilization is completely different. Before the arrival of the British, we had a common border between India and Persia, and one of the greatest problems was the partition of India in 1947, when the state of Pakistan was created. Pakistan was created as a homeland for Asian Muslims, but this is a mistake — the division of one territory into artificial states. It was part of British policy.

— But you still survived, and it's amazing.