Abkhazia: Does it make sense to fight for power?

The first suspect of the plotted life attempt against MP Kan Kvarchia has been arrested in Sukhum. Secretary of Abkhazia’s Security Council Mukhammed Kilba says that there might be more suspects in the case. All this may have quite negative political consequences for Abkhazia.

A man was blown up while fixing a bomb in the Abkhazia Television’s park on Oct 17. It is not yet known what exactly happened but the man was obviously not planning such an outcome. In his phone, the investigators have found proofs that he was plotting a life attempt against MP Kan Kvarchia and perhaps even other terrorist acts in Sukhum.

A few days later, the police supposed that the organizer or one of the organizers might have contacts with the opposition Amtsakhara Party.

The arrest has confirmed this supposition as the arrested is a relative of Amtsakhara member Vitaly Korsantia, who is not in Sukhum right now.

In the meanwhile, the opposition bloc is holding meetings in the country, with its leaders making very tough statements. Some political forces have qualified their rhetoric as dangerous for Abkhazia’s security.

It seems that the opposition is getting ready for a coup. Among the most active oppositionists are Leonid Lakerbaya and Aslan Bzhania. Both had posts under former President Alexander Ankvab: Lakerbaya was Prime Minister, Bzhania was Chief of the National Security Service. Naturally, one of the slogans of the opposition is “We Want Ankvab Back!”

All this is happening just a few months before the next parliamentary elections. So, perhaps, the oppositionists are not going to wait for so long and are plotting a coup. But even if they fail to change the regime, their tough rhetoric will help them to be strong during the elections.

Kvarchia’s case will certainly be a blow for them. If the police find proofs of their complicity in the case, Khadzhimba’s regime will have a chance to knock them down.

One of the key peculiarity of the opposition’s anti-Khadzhimba campaign is that it is not based on any specific goals, programs or ideas, it says nothing about Abkhazia’s politics, economy or relations with Russia. Its core is strong hatred for specific personalities.

The oppositionists are not saying a word about reforms or their first steps should they come back into power. It is not clear what they are going to do. They will hardly be able just to distribute offices and to enjoy their lives. The relative welfare of 2009-2013 was due mostly to Russia’s extensive assistance and also because that money was actively used by the rulers for reproducing themselves.

Today, high inflation has forced the Russians to give less and control more. So, the new rulers will hardly be able to live the way their predecessors lived. Nor do they have internal resources or any competences for using what they have.

Today, there is no money left in Abkhazia, with the opposition not knowing what to do to improve the situation. What it has is lots of people who just want to get offices so as to improve their own businesses. In the meantime, Abkhazia is facing a serious infrastructural crisis. And nobody knows what to do to save the decaying material heritage of the Soviet epoch.

And after all, who has told those people that they will be able to stay in power for more than six months?

On the other hand, the ruling regime is so weak that Abkhazia may soon face no rule at all. And the problem here is not the personal qualities of the President or his team but the growing social-economic crisis.

Raul Khadzhmiba’s key concern today is to protect his regime from his opponents and to stay in his office till 2019 as economic or social improvements are far beyond his capacity.

Anton Krivenyuk, specially for EADaily