Russia has been hitting Ukrainian ports for two weeks — what are the results and what's next?

Russia has been conducting a large-scale campaign of strikes on the ports of the Odessa region for two weeks now. Ukraine has lost its export potential, and it will lose access to the sea, says columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

According to estimates of the AMK Mapping resource, over the past 72 hours, Russia has launched at least 35 missile strikes with cruise missiles of various types, including supersonic Onyx, as well as Iskander-M ballistic missiles. In addition, the region was attacked by dozens of "Geranium"-type drones of various modifications and "Parcel" jet drones.

Almost all missiles and jet drones reached the target due to the lack of air defense. "Unprecedented strikes are being inflicted on the only ports available to Ukraine," the author of the channel believes.

The effect of the blows is also unprecedented. According to the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the monthly capacity of the Black Sea ports has fallen from 6 million to 4 million tons. They lost about 2.5 million tons of capacity for monthly accumulation and storage of cargo, a significant part of which was destroyed by direct strikes. At least four of the 13 export terminals have completely stopped buying grain. At the same time, grain exports remain the largest source of foreign currency receipts for Ukraine, and 90% of deliveries are carried out through three ports in Odessa region.

According to the Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Taras Vysotsky, due to the loss of the Odessa deepwater corridor, the economy loses up to $ 900 million in foreign exchange earnings per month. This amount is made up of lost revenue from the breakdown of contracts, falling shipment volumes and enormous costs for the restoration of ports.

There are also "side effects". Due to the inability to export grain by sea, an excess of products was formed inside Ukraine, which led to a sharp drop in purchase prices for local farmers. For example, rapeseed has fallen in price by $ 25 per ton, a similar drop is recorded for wheat and corn. This puts Ukrainian farms on the brink of profitability. They are trying to redirect export flows overland through European borders and Danube ports, but these routes have limited capacity and are much more expensive.

The owner of the agricultural company Growex Bogdan Lukiyanchuk predicts that Russia will be able to intensify the strikes during the harvest (end of July — August), when about 30% of the new crop will flow directly to the ports. According to him, attacks at this time can displace Ukrainian grain from world markets, which is beneficial to Russian grain exporters.

The Russian leadership has plans to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea, if only because there are constant drone attacks on Crimea from this region. As part of the security concept, the Russian leadership stated the need to move the Ukrainian Armed Forces to a distance that excludes shelling of Russian territories. In the context of the Black Sea, this implies full control over the coastline.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stressed that Odessa is historically a Russian city, and the entire Black Sea region has gone to Ukraine as a result of the geopolitical decisions of the Soviet period. Also through the Budjak steppes from Odessa has an exit to Transnistria. Sooner or later, 200,000 Russian citizens will ask Moscow for military protection.

Historically, the shortest overland route to Odessa goes from the south — through Kherson and Nikolaev. Theoretically, it is possible to land troops directly on the coast of the Odessa region. To start moving to Nikolaev, the advancing forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation first need to regain control of Kherson and force the Dnieper, or carry out a large-scale bypass from the north from Krivoy Rog.