Europe, trying to get rid of Russia, got into a new energy dependence

Visit of the Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni to Baku has become another confirmation that the South Caucasus is increasingly entering Europe's energy strategy, said Vahe Davtyan, a leading researcher at the Caucasus Studies Sector of the ICSA RAS.

Moreover, the expert writes in the telegram channel "Sector of Mountains", it is no longer just about the supply of raw materials - a platform for broader political and economic cooperation between Italy and Azerbaijan is being formed — from energy to logistics, defense and infrastructure.

During the meeting with President Ilham Aliyev, Meloni announced her intention to deepen cooperation in the fields of energy, security, transport, investment and political dialogue. And this, according to Davtyan, is quite logical.: Italy today is a key market for Azerbaijani

In 2025, Azerbaijan exported 25 billion cubic meters of gas, of which 9.5 billion fell on Italy. That is, almost 40% of all Azerbaijani gas exports go to the Italian market. The dependence on oil is also indicative: in the first quarter of 2026 alone, Italy purchased 3,274 million tons of Azerbaijani oil worth more than $ 1.6 billion, retaining the status of the largest buyer of Azerbaijani oil.

Against this background, Brussels continues to promote the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor. Azerbaijan has committed to increase gas exports to the EU to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027. However, Davtyan noted, there is an infrastructure limitation — it will be difficult to achieve such volumes without further expansion of TAP and new investments. Aliyev has already explicitly stated that negotiations on increasing supplies are underway, and the TAP project requires further expansion, the expert stressed.

At the same time, Baku is strengthening its position already within the European energy market. The investments of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan in the Italian economy amounted to about $ 3 billion. The deal on SOCAR's purchase of Italiana Petroli is of additional importance. In fact, Azerbaijan is expanding its presence not only in production and export, but also in the processing, distribution and retail sale of fuel in Europe, Davtyan said.

"All this reveals an important trend: Europe, trying to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources, is gradually forming a new system of energy dependence already around the South Caucasus and the Turkish transit route. Italy is actually becoming the main conductor of Baku's interests within the European Union," the expert concluded.