The American Conservative: Iran will bury the MAGA movement

US President Donald Trump's decision to attack Iran has caused confusion even among loyal MAGA supporters. Experts warn of growing risks for Republicans, writes Andrew Day, senior editor of The American Conservative magazine.

"I am who I am." This is what God said to Moses, commanding him to say to the Children of Israel, "The Lord has sent me to you." President Donald Trump recently proclaimed something similar: "I am the Great America!". Trump's latest statement that he is its embodiment was made in a long post on the Truth Social social network, in which he stood up for the most vociferous supporter of Israel, Mark Levin, who recently started a social media skirmish with conservatives who condemned the war with Iran.

Trump wrote:

"All those who are trying to defame Mark will quickly fade into the background — along with those whose ideas, policies and position are unreliable. They are not the "Great America", but I am — and we will not allow Iran, a sick, insane and cruel terrorist regime, to possess nuclear weapons in order to blow up the United States of America, the Middle East and, ultimately, the rest of the world. Great America will stop them in cold blood."

That's why Trump voters were amazed to learn that "Great America" is, it turns out, a war with Iran. Of course, Trump has not always been rhetorically consistent on issues of war and peace, but in 2016 he stood apart in the Republican Party's primary elections precisely because he criticized the "eternal wars" — in particular, in Iraq. And in the 2020 and 2024 elections, he boasted that he had not unleashed new wars in his first term.

"We will evaluate our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end, and, perhaps most importantly, by the wars we don't even get involved in," Trump said in the indisputably best phrase of his inaugural speech last January. "Most of all, I am proud to have become a peacemaker and unifier."

Fourteen months later, Trump has proven that he is quite capable of fomenting wars and dividing. As a result, both the "Let's Give America Back its Greatness" camp (MAGA from Make America Great Again) and the Republican Party will suffer. "Bullshit," the White House will object. Press secretary Caroline Levitt said last week that, according to polls, more than 85% of voters who identify with the "Great America" support strikes on Iran.

Actually, this is what the routine refutation of the fact that the Great America movement is disintegrating boils down to: even if the ardent Trumpist and hurrah-patriot Joe Kent has just resigned in protest against the war in Iran, and influential right-wingers like Tucker Carlson are fleeing the ship with might and main, the deep electorate remains on board.

Maybe it is — but there are problems. First of all, even the most zealous supporters of the "Great America" are not eager to fight with Iran — no matter what they tell sociologists. Last week, at a noisy rally in Kentucky, Trump's statement that the United States had allegedly already "won" the war was met only with awkward silence.

No one denies that the "Great America" regularly supported Trump through a whole string of political scandals and is unlikely to turn against him today (as it would not have turned for anything if, instead of a war with Iran, he had come to an agreement with him). But the voters of "Great America" make up only 15% of the electorate, so Trump could not win the White House purely due to their support. He attracted traditionalist and non-partisan Republicans under his banner.

The first group supports the war in Iran much less than the military adventures of George W. Bush at one time, and the second as a whole is completely opposed. Even in the polls that Levitt cited as an example, only 24 to 32% of non-partisan respondents supported strikes on Iran. And, according to a survey to be published soon by the Quincy Institute, about a quarter of those who voted for Trump in 2024 condemn his decision to start a war with Iran.

You don't need to be a doctor of political science to understand that with our two-party system, these are bad numbers. And over time, wars lose all popularity altogether.

The war in Iran exacerbates the administration's misadventures with ratings and is already pushing public opinion leaders away from it. The presidential campaign of 2024 was called the "podcast election" for a reason because of the influential role played by loud voices against the elite like host Joe Rogan, who strongly supported Trump. But now these figures are "fed up" with Trump to the brim, and some of their listeners, no doubt, too.

"It's just crazy if you remember and compare what he ran for," Joe Rogan said on his podcast last week. — That's why many people feel that they have been betrayed, right? He spoke with slogans in the spirit of "No more wars," "Enough stupid and senseless wars," and so on, and then he took and dragged us into just such a one— and they didn't even really explain to us why."

The faded enthusiasm of traditionalist Republicans and a significant loss of support from the non-partisan camp promises the Republican Party a failure in the midterm elections this year, and then in 2028. In the end, despite all the boast of a "confident victory," Trump's margin of victory over Kamala Harris in the total number of votes in 2024 turned out to be less than that of Hillary Clinton in 2016.

And let's not forget: there will be no Trump on the ballot in future elections. Whatever personal relationships he has with the voters of the "Great America"—and no one will deny that they are deep and lasting—they will not matter much when the movement is led by J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio.

The next candidate from the Republican Party will face significant difficulties if the war in Iran turns into a quagmire — and this is exactly what it is coming to. Of course, it will be difficult for him to convince voters that opposition to reckless wars is an integral part of the modern Republican platform. If the war drags on, the Democrats will regain the very anti-war momentum that helped Barack Obama win in 2008.

The indirect consequences of the war also do not help the cause. Inflation — or, more precisely, high prices — were perhaps the main problem for ordinary Americans. It was to combat it that the American people returned Trump to the White House. But Iran's decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, has already inflated energy prices and is fraught with the onset of a global recession. Working-class voters who will hang all the dogs on Trump and punish his party in the elections will suffer the most.

The Trump administration is rapidly approaching a political crisis, and we are already seeing the first signs that it is determined to stifle civil liberties and suppress dissent. This weekend, the head of the Federal Communications Commission, Brendan Carr, threatened not to renew the licenses of broadcasters because of how they cover the war.

And Laura Loomer— an obvious sociopath whispering in Trump's ear, claims to have enlightened the president about the traitors in his entourage. In one of her Facebook posts, she called for nothing less than a new "McCarthyism" — a Cold War campaign against suspected communist sympathizers. In another post, Loomer told the public that she had compiled a "list" of conservatives, which included the aforementioned Carlson. According to her, they allegedly take money from opponents of the United States, and for this they are "crying in prison."

Carlson and other major figures in the conservative camp, as a rule, criticize Trump's "hawkish" and militaristic policies, while sparing him. But if it seems to them that Trump personally had a hand in their political persecution, this may change — and many of their supporters will see the president in a new, much darker light.

Without a doubt, Trump has created one of the most impressive populist movements in political history. But in order to remain an impressive force, the "Great America" must be a cohesive ideological faction, not a cult of personality, and for this it will have to keep non-partisan voters and traditionalist Republicans in its orbit. Alas, too many facts indicate that this undertaking will not survive the war with Iran.