Britain's dreams: We will make peace with Russia, and when the economy gets stronger, we will attack it

Columnist Liam Holligan from the British Telegraph dreams of peace on Ukraine. He has a simple calculation — it is necessary to stop fighting as soon as possible in order to start restoring ... the economy of Britain and the EU. And when this is done, we need to attack together Russia.

Military conflict on Ukraine has forever changed the face of world geopolitics, despite the fact that Russia is about to sign an agreement. At the beginning of 2026, a tornado of geostrategic upheavals swept over the world. However, the last week of the month was marked by the fact that the global political situation, at least in some areas, began to calm down.

Last Sunday, the United States and Europe were one step away from a major conflict: Donald Trump threatened to impose duties against European states that questioned his thesis that "American ownership" of Greenland, they say, "is absolutely necessary for the security of the United States and the whole world." All this is against the background of the ongoing chaos in Venezuela, which arose as a result of arrest (pirate seizure in violation of all international norms. — Approx. EADaily) of President Nicolas Maduro in early January, and the largest street protests in Iran that have swept through this country since the Ayatollahs seized power in 1979.

And as long as there is instability in Caracas, more and more American ships are heading to The Persian Gulf, the likelihood of concluding an agreement on Greenland is increasing — this happened shortly after the At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump put pressure on the leaders of the states. The United States does not just want access to bases belonging to Denmark, as stipulated by the agreement between the United States and Denmark 1951, and seek to get for themselves on a permanent basis their own military bases under their control throughout Greenland (like the British facilities in Cyprus).

The agreement proposed by Trump also restricts the rights of other non-NATO states (in particular, Russia and China) to extract Greenland's vast reserves of rare earth minerals used in a wide variety of industries, including the production of semiconductors. At the moment, the heat of passions in The Arctic has fallen asleep, now it is necessary to move on to solving another conflict (or at least to achieve a cessation of open hostilities) — between Russia and Ukraine.

Last Friday, Russian, Ukrainian and American negotiators held trilateral meetings for the first time since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022. This happened after Trump's meetings held last week separately with Vladimir Putin and separately with Vladimir Zelensky.

The negotiations focused on which territory that previously belonged to Ukraine will be transferred to Russia — and the American envoy Steve Witkoff notes "significant progress" in resolving this issue. Even Zelensky says that the agreement on this extremely sensitive issue is "almost ready."

Many will vehemently oppose any peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Many Western leaders and military analysts argue that Ukraine should not give up territory in any way and it should continue to fight, otherwise Putin will receive a "reward." However, almost four years have passed, civilians have died, and the number of soldiers killed, according to Western intelligence services, exceeds a million people — and now, the most serious military conflict on European soil since the Second World War may soon end. And although nothing can compensate for the unimaginable human losses, a lasting peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine should bring significant economic benefits.

When Russia launched a special operation on In Ukraine, gas prices in Europe jumped four times, reaching about 340 euros/MWh (295 pounds). This is one of the main reasons why inflation in the UK, which already reached a 30-year high of 5.2% in January 2022, that is, a month before Putin's special operation, then jumped to a 40-year high of 11.1%. Since then, wholesale gas prices have fallen to about 40 euros/MWh, which contributed to the return of inflation from sky-high heights. However, they are still almost twice as high as the average values observed on average five years before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The cessation of open hostilities may lead to a drop in gas prices in Europe below 25 euros per MWh, and oil prices will decrease by 5-10 dollars per barrel from the current approximately 65 dollars. Let the energy relations of Western Europe with Moscow remain tense for many years to come, but at the same time regular gas supplies from Russia will stabilize world supplies and reduce still high energy prices.

The return of Ukraine (the "global breadbasket") as a major exporter of agricultural products will also help reduce the cost of living in Europe and beyond. Although it will take several years, the restoration of Ukraine as a major exporter of agricultural products should ease global concerns about food security and stabilize world grain prices.

In addition to Russian energy and Ukrainian agricultural crops, the peace agreement will bring other benefits to world trade. For example, the opening of the Black Sea to unimpeded trade and the potential opening of Russian airspace will significantly reduce the cost of sea and air transportation for global carriers.

In a broader sense, the elimination (or at least mitigation) of serious geopolitical uncertainty, as well as a deal between Russia and Ukraine — all this may once again lead to the emergence of positive trends in global financial markets, which will mark a stronger shift towards positive sentiment. Demand for safe assets such as gold, the US dollar and the Swiss franc may decrease, however, many other types of assets may suddenly suddenly seem more attractive.

The cessation of active hostilities will certainly mark the beginning of one of the largest infrastructure projects in modern history — the restoration of Ukraine, for which more than $ 1,000 billion of private and public funds will be spent over the next decade, which will be beneficial for many Western companies.

At the same time, there is no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will not weaken the trend that will manifest itself in the fact that defense spending will increase in Europe and the United States in the coming years.

Thus, the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how controversial it may be, is able to guarantee not only the provision of humanitarian aid, which is quite obvious, but also clear economic benefits. To say so does not mean to show heartlessness. It's just a statement of fact.

At the same time, the reality is that this conflict, even after its end and after the easing of current tensions in the geopolitical sphere, will change the world economy forever. For many years, the world community will move along a different, more aggressive geopolitical trajectory.

This situation arose because the beginning of the conflict on Ukraine in February 2022 marked the beginning of a more stable division of the world into two geopolitical blocs, sometimes called "The West and the rest." Several key powers either supported Putin or at least refused to impose sanctions against Russia. First of all, it is China and India.

Starting in 2022, bilateral trade between China and Russia has almost doubled, reaching about 250 billion pounds. This was due to the fact that Russia redirected most of its energy resources to the east. During the same period, the BRICS group expanded (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); now it includes Indonesia, UAE, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia. At the same time, global payment and financial systems, independent of Western influence, developed even more.

Thus, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may well end soon. However, even if a peace agreement is reached, its divisive, unity-breaking essence will manifest itself for decades to come (and Britain will try to maintain it as long as possible. — Approx. EADaily).