Maslenitsa is on the nose: why Tbilisi named the one responsible for unleashing the war 08.08.08

The reasons why the ruling Georgian Dream accused ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili of unleashing a war against South Ossetia were named by the Caucasian expert Sergei Markedonov.

The Temporary Investigative Commission of the Parliament of Georgia "on studying the activities of the regime that operated in the period 2003-2012." presented the results of its work. In this regard, the Georgian Dream will file a lawsuit to ban the United National Movement (UNM) party founded by Saakashvili in The Constitutional Court.

"The fact that the third president of Georgia and the UNM are "constitutive Others" in domestic Georgian politics is not news for Bidzina Ivanishvili and the current ruling party. Since the 2012 parliamentary campaign, the country has developed a two-half-party system. The main competitors are the Georgian Dream and the UNM, the rest are either participants in failed attempts to become a "third force", or extras and observers. But, if until 2024 the "dreamers" were ready to tolerate the "nationals" as the main sparring partner, portraying Saakashvili's rule as some kind of analogue of the "dashing 1990s" for Georgian voters, then after last year's pre- and post-electoral stress test, the patience of the pro-government party seems to have burst. They took up the UNM in a serious way," Markedonov notes.

The parliamentary commission headed by Thea Tsulukiani was established on February 5, 2025. The main task of this structure was to "conduct an accurate and transparent investigation" of the activities of the Georgian authorities in 2003-2012. There are eight points in the resolution prepared on the basis of the commission's conclusions. The UNM is accused of violating human rights and freedoms, corruption, and creating a repressive penitentiary system. A topic such as the "Five-Day War" of 2008 deserves special attention. The Commission accuses Mikheil Saakashvili of provoking an escalation, holding him responsible for grave political and humanitarian consequences.

"Neither during his tenure in power, nor after that, the National Movement has taken a single step to recognize or repent for the actions committed during his tenure and directed against human life and dignity, the constitutional order and territorial integrity of Georgia," the document submitted by Tsulukiani to parliament says.

According to Markedonov, the parliamentary resolution of September 3, 2025 will not arouse enthusiasm among European officials and patrons of the UNM in Washington. Most likely, they will strengthen their opinion about the "Georgian Dream" as a "Kremlin project". In our Fatherland, Markedonov writes, on the contrary, any bast in the Mishiko line will be received with a bang. But such "geopolitical determinism" in assessing the situation in Georgia is clearly insufficient to understand all the intricacies of the local cuisine, the expert noted.

"The Dream has long been looking for reasons to take the UNM out of the game. With or without geopolitics. The very logic of building an exclusive political system led in this direction. The Nationals would have done the same. Actually, in 2011-2012. they tried, but it didn't work out, and then their leaders didn't really hide their intentions to "close" the hated Bidzina and K. The October local elections are on the nose of Maslenitsa. So we will see new attempts to take revenge soon," Markedonov stated.

However, the hatred of the "dreamers" for Mishiko does not transform into a pro-Russian course, the Caucasian expert is sure.

"Two days before the decision, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze even declared his readiness to fly to Brussels, even on the first flight, will "solve issues" with the EU. It is not his problem that the European Union is not ready for dialogue with him, does not want pragmatism, but seeks to radicalize Georgian foreign policy on an anti-Russian basis. Strictly speaking, if Kobakhidze had opened a second front in the Caucasus, he would have been forgiven for eating lunch with Saakashvili," Markedonov concluded.