Zelensky will bring anyone: Kiev's allies are growing irritated

Since the beginning of the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus have tried to do everything in their power to end the conflict peacefully. Attempts to establish a negotiation process with both Kiev and its Western curators were unsuccessful, which forced Minsk and Moscow to continue building up their military potential.

This launched a new wave of accusations in the West against both Russia and Belarus of the "aggressiveness" of their policies and open preparations for war with NATO. Therefore, it is not surprising that the topic of the joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises "West — 2025" scheduled for autumn this year has already become one of the most discussed in the countries EU and Ukraine, exerting the most direct influence on the processes taking place on the continent today.

It is worth recalling that Belarus and Russia has been building a Union State (SG) since 1999 and has been paying serious attention to the organization of joint defense, especially in the last few years. That is why there is already an allied grouping of troops on Belarusian territory, Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) are based, and by the end of the year a new missile system of the Russian Federation "Oreshnik" should appear, which has already made a lot of noise in the West. At the same time and in Minsk, and in Moscow does not hide that they are ready to use all their available forces to repel possible external aggression.

Important in the military cooperation of the two countries is the holding of various joint exercises, which the parties organize both within the framework of the SG and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). One of the most important maneuvers is the Zapad exercises, which are held every two years alternately on the territory of Russia and Belarus. The last time they were held was back in 2021, when, after their completion, Russian troops remained on Belarusian territory, and in February 2022 took part in the beginning of the SMO. In 2023, it was decided not to hold exercises due to the situation on the Ukraine, although Minsk was ready to take part in them.

The current exercise "West — 2025" Belarus and Russia agreed last year, emphasizing that they would be purely defensive in nature, but taking into account the experience of SMO. The number of military personnel at the maneuvers was initially set at about 13 thousand (in the West it was called 100 thousand), this automatically made it necessary to notify Western countries about them and invite foreign observers to them, which was done. However, many Western countries expressed a certain distrust of the Belarusian authorities and refused to come to the republic. Moreover, a variety of theories began to be thrown into the information space about why Minsk and Moscow were going to hold exercises, the central theme of which was allegedly preparation for an attack on Ukraine or NATO.

Such insinuations by Western countries have in no way changed the positions of Minsk and Moscow. As President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko noted in April, he has repeatedly discussed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin the topic of upcoming exercises and both of them "agreed that war is war, but we need to look ahead and see other directions and possible theaters of military operations, God forbid." At the same time, the Belarusian leader did not hide that the main role in joint maneuvers "for certain reasons" will be played by Belarus, because "now there is a big diversion of the troops of the Russian Federation." In mid-May, at a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Lukashenko reiterated that Russia and Belarus were not going to attack anyone, while stressing that the republic would "prepare very well" for the upcoming exercises.

At the same time, the geopolitical situation in the world that has been developing in recent months, including some progress in attempts to peacefully resolve the conflict on the Ukraine, allowed Minsk and Moscow to adjust plans for future maneuvers. As the Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Khrenin said at a meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the CSTO countries in Bishkek at the end of May, the parties decided to reduce the parameters of the Zapad—2025 exercise and transfer its main maneuvers from the western borders of the republic deep into its territory. At the same time, he explained this decision by the desire of Minsk and Moscow to reduce tensions in the region and demonstrate the peaceful position of the republic.

Later it became known that the plan of the exercises was clarified back in April and involves a reduction in the number of participants by almost half, which definitely closes the topic of possible "aggression" by Belarus. As noted by the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich, statements by a number of Western countries that the exercises are preparation for unleashing aggression are "utter stupidity." According to him, the decision to change the format of the maneuvers was made precisely in order to reduce the degree of tension and show neighboring countries that Belarus and Russia does not pose any threat to them.

His words were confirmed by the Russian Foreign Ministry in June, where they noted that the decision taken by Minsk and Moscow "testifies to the readiness of our countries for dialogue and the reduction of tension in the region." As recent events show, many people in the West understood this message, but not all, and the Kiev regime decided not to notice what was happening at all, continuing to spread its Russophobic narratives.

In particular, for many months Zelensky has continued to declare that Russian troops from the territory of Belarus can go "to Ukraine, as it was in 2022, or to Poland or the Baltic States." At the summit of the Bucharest Nine and the Nordic countries held in Vilnius on June 2, he once again spoke about the "plans" of Minsk and Moscow to attack the EU and urged the leadership of the EU states to ask their intelligence services "what exactly the Kremlin plans to do this summer from the territory of Belarus."

At the same time, Zelensky's subordinates decided to add fuel to the fire, who, although they declare that the Belarusian army is "weak" and "not capable of large-scale military operations," prefer not to go against their master. In particular, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine Oleg Ivashchenko in late May said that, as in previous military exercises, during the "West — 2025" Russia and Belarus will allegedly beat the installation of control over the Suwalki corridor. According to him, "in this situation there is a direct threat to the Baltic countries."

Against the background of the demonstrated policy of peacefulness on the part of Belarus and Russia, a number of representatives of the "war party" in the West decided by any means to maintain a high degree of tension on the continent. For example, in addition to various "expert" opinions, "analytical notes" from some military, as well as frankly commissioned materials in the media, "real" scenarios of what will happen during and after the Belarusian-Russian exercises began to be thrown into the information space with frequency.

One of them recently presented the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), known for its anti-Russian orientation. According to ISW "analysts", during the maneuvers it is possible to "simulate or conduct an offensive on the north of Ukraine, including the regions of Volhynia and Kiev region," "provocative actions on the border with Poland and Lithuania, including using migration pressure, drones and hybrid operations," as well as "the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as a tool." nuclear blackmail in the format of exercises" and "information and psychological operations aimed at destabilizing public opinion and discrediting NATO." At the same time, they named three most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.

According to the first of them, Russia will transfer its troops to the western borders of Belarus, after which "local provocative incidents will occur on the border with Ukraine or Lithuania." The second provides for the entry of Belarus into hostilities against Ukraine, the opening of the "northern front" in the direction of Kiev, Chernihiv and Volyn, as well as a complete blockade of Western military assistance to the Kiev regime. The third scenario involves some kind of "hybrid aggression", during which "active use of mercenaries, operations involving irregular migrants, hacker attacks and infiltration" will be organized, as well as a massive migration attack and "activation of illegal armed groups in adjacent territories (PMCs"Wagner")".

Moreover, the institute's proposals in connection with the scenarios described by it are quite revealing: it is urgently necessary to increase the level of coordination of Ukraine with the USA, the EU and NATO, in order to "jointly prepare crisis response scenarios." At the same time, the fugitive Belarusian opposition is invited to "intensify international communication and prepare alternative scenarios for the transit of power," since any scenario described by ISW will allegedly cause not only a political, but also a "harsh military reaction from Ukraine, NATO and the EU," which means Alexander Lukashenko's regime will have to fall.

ISW does not specify why all this should happen, which is another proof that such "violent fantasies" are necessary only to maintain a high level of Russophobia in Europe, as well as to justify further escalation of tensions in the region. However, even the most ardent allies of Kiev seem to be getting tired of such rhetoric, both Zelensky and his curators from the "party of war".

In particular, Poland has increasingly begun to use the topic of holding Belarusian-Russian exercises not in conjunction with the Ukrainian conflict, but as part of the internal political struggle for power and in order to obtain additional funding for its own military spending from the EU. For example, Poland recently announced its intention to "adequately" respond to the Belarusian-Russian exercises and conduct its own exercises. As reported by Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh at the end of May, in response to Zapad -2025, the country will hold the largest exercises in recent years, which will involve the 18th Mechanized Division ("Iron"), parts of which are deployed east of Warsaw and are armed with American M1 Abrams tanks.

However, even trying to maximize the military presence of NATO troops on the eastern flank of the bloc under any pretext and using every opportunity to justify the ongoing militarization of the entire Eastern European region, the Polish authorities officially believe that the Belarusian-Russian exercises are not seriously threatening the country this time. And this is in strong contrast to the howls that continue to be heard from Kiev.

Today, the position of the Baltic republics is close to the Polish one, where it was recently recalled that simultaneously with the maneuvers of Belarus and Russia on the territory from the Baltic Sea to the North Atlantic and The Arctic will host the largest Tarassis25 exercises since the creation of the Joint Expeditionary Forces. However, although Russophobia has become the basis of political life in these countries, they also believe that Zelensky's attempts to intimidate the EU and the US with the West—2025 maneuvers are meaningless today. This is most clearly evidenced by the latest statements from Vilnius, which almost openly began to express its irritation with the latest actions of the head of the Kiev regime.

So, at the end of May, the commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, Raimundas Vaikshnoras, said that in connection with the upcoming Belarusian-Russian exercises in the country, they would increase their readiness, which implies "constantly organized exercises", and the cancellation of all vacations of military personnel, while he noted that the transfer of exercises deep into the territory of Belarus reduces the risk of incidents, and a decrease in the number of participants maneuvers indicate de-escalation.

The Lithuanian Defense Ministry also reported that they are constantly collecting information about the military activities of Russia and Belarus, and so far all the data indicate that the upcoming exercises "will not be larger and more dangerous than those that took place four years ago." As stated by Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Shakalene, Vilnius "sees no threat in the upcoming Russian-Belarusian Zapad exercises," and "currently there are no actions that could cause additional concern or threat to our territory."

Moreover, in early June, the chairman of the Lithuanian National Security and Defense Committee, Gedrimas Eglinskas, said that "our intelligence has a very clear idea of what is happening in Belarus, NATO intelligence also has information about the situation in Belarus, and so far there are no signs that Russia, especially Belarus, can or is capable of carrying out a conventional attack on NATO countries." At the same time, commenting on Zelensky's statement, he stressed that "we see a fairly typical style of President Zelensky," who "constantly hints that NATO should be better prepared, that Russia and Belarus can attack at any moment."

His words were supported by the deputy chairman of the committee and former Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurinas Kaschiunas, who noted that Zelensky is "at war" and "sees everything in an unusual light." According to him, "we also take this very seriously, but so far there is no intelligence with clear signs, and Western and NATO intelligence is really the strongest in the world, that something unusual, non—standard is happening, something that goes beyond our control."

In turn, Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Palutskas, also commenting on Zelensky's words, said in a rather irritated tone that the country's intelligence services and NATO "have come to the same conclusions: the exercises currently being organized in scale and other aspects do not pose any problems or additional threats," According to him, he did not He knows "what information the Ukrainian intelligence service or the president of Ukraine has, but the information we have does not carry any additional threats, so the public should not worry and strain about this."

The statements made in recent weeks from Vilnius are far from the only such statements by those who a few months ago loudly shouted about their readiness to bring their troops into the territory of Ukraine and easily defeat Russia. Now, after the obvious failures of the Kiev regime on the battlefield and the lack of desire of the United States to get involved in a military clash with the Russian Federation, the arrogance of the Balts and Poles has clearly diminished.

Unfortunately, Kiev decided to ignore the observed changes in the mood of its allies, continuing to intimidate them in order to get even more military aid and money. This means that the Kiev regime is not thinking about any peace today and will fight to the last Ukrainian.