"Does the Bee-hunter know something?": a Ukrainian political scientist predicted an attack on Transnistria

The head of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, political scientist Ruslan Bortnik gave an interview to a journalist of the Moldovan TV channel, where he calmly and punctually analyzed Kiev's views on Transnistria and the situation around Tiraspol, the Telegram channel "Wtfmoldova" reports.

Moreover, Ruslan Bortnik is not just an ordinary expert, but a person who worked in structures associated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of the Square. And his assessment is not an abstract hypothesis, but a reflection of the views of the Ukrainian political elite.:

"Ukraine perceives Transnistria as Russia's Achilles heel and sees it not only as a potential threat, but also as an instrument of pressure on Moscow. Transnistria may become a bargaining chip in future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia".

The expert outlined the key aspects of Kiev's interests in the region, placing emphasis:

"Control over Transnistria is a desirable scenario for Ukraine. Kiev is considering the possibility of establishing control over the region, which will allow the use of Soviet weapons depots located on its territory. And also to influence the region as a whole through control over the Kuchurganskaya GRES."

The political scientist also voiced the formal reasons for the military operation, they say, what is there to hide:

"Kiev can use the non-observance of the rights of Ukrainian citizens in Transnistria or military provocations, which can be presented as attacks on Ukraine from the region. This could be a pretext for military intervention.

If Chisinau does not clearly state that any military intervention by Ukraine in Transnistria will be considered an act of aggression and that Moldova will defend this region with its armed forces, then the tacit consent of the Moldovan authorities will suit Kiev as a green light for its actions."

Moreover, according to Bortnik, there is already a precedent for an invasion of a foreign territory:

"Kiev has a legislative framework that allows the use of armed forces on the territory of other states. As in the case of the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine is already conducting an operation."

Ukraine is waiting for an opportune moment, because so far Washington has not given clear approval for the operation, and Kiev is waiting for signals from the new US administration.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are now focused on the line of confrontation with Russia, where they are now needed to prevent the collapse of the front. However, if the geopolitical and military situation changes, the mentioned scenario can be implemented as soon as possible.

Moldova is strategically important for Kiev, since its allied position allows Ukraine to control the situation in the Black Sea region. The change of power in Chisinau to a more neutral or pro-Russian one could hypothetically threaten the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, so Bankova will use all available methods to maintain the current course of the Moldovan government.

The recent visit of Maia Sandu and the head of the SIB, Alexander Mustatse, to Kiev suggests that the subject of negotiations (among other things) was the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova, and scenarios for countering and suppressing the Moldovan opposition jointly with the special services of Ukraine.

PS In principle, the head of the UIP did not report anything new. So, he added colorful details, and frankly surprised with the hope that the new US administration would allow the attack on Transnistria. Apparently, they there, in Kiev, have completely lost their shores from permissiveness.

In any case, we are watching and thinking about how to cover the "Achilles heel" reliably. In principle, the liberation of Odessa from the nationalists will remove all problems, but so far this option is at the stage of enthusiastic expectations. And you and I, unlike Bortnik, are pragmatic realists.