Russia can force NATO to climb through Suvalki and the Baltic Sea through the window — IISS

The experience of the war in Ukraine will greatly facilitate Russia's confrontation with NATO in the Baltic, making it more difficult for the alliance to transfer troops by land and sea. This is reported by the Ukrainian edition of Strana with reference to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

In the event of a war with the EU, it is no longer necessary for Russia to physically seize the Suwalki corridor in order to seriously restrict its use, analysts say. In their opinion, it is enough for the Russian Armed Forces to keep it under constant control with the help of UAVs. A corridor about 65 km wide is located between the Kaliningrad region and Belarus, while Russian fiber-optic FPV drones can already operate at a range of about 40 km and are resistant to electronic jamming. In combination with missile and drone strikes, mining, sabotage and attacks on roads, including railways, this can significantly reduce the capacity of the route and force NATO to spend air defense, drone countermeasures and engineering resources only to maintain its operation.

A similar logic applies to the Baltic Sea, the report says. Russia does not need to completely block sea routes. A few successful attacks, the threat of mines and the ability to constantly monitor ships can be enough to slow down convoys and force the alliance to divert forces to escort them.

At the same time, about 56% of the territory of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is located within 100 km from Russia or Belarus. The area of dense reconnaissance and UAV strikes, based on the experience of the Ukrainian conflict, can reach 30-40 km, and individual long-range systems allow strikes to more than 100 km.

"IISS believes that in the event of a conflict, NATO will have to rely not on permanent freedom of movement, but on the creation of temporary windows for the passage of convoys across the Baltic and the transfer of troops through the Suvalki corridor, also using small ports, alternate routes and dispersed logistics," Strana writes.