Turkey is focusing on Trump: Russia's bases in Syria and a "gross mistake" on the S-400

Last Sunday, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler held a meeting with media representatives during which he summed up the results of the outgoing year and spoke about the country's "multi-vector security policy aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the region," TRT TV channel reported.

One of the most exciting topics for journalists was the situation in Syria. According to the head of the Turkish military department, there are currently no "obvious signs" of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Arab republic, where Bashar al-Assad's regime fell earlier this month. According to the Turkish Ministry of Defense, the Russian Armed Forces only regrouped their units from other strongholds on Syrian territory to Latakia and Tartus, the locations of the Khmeimim airbase and the logistics center of the Russian fleet, respectively. At the same time, as Guler suggested, individual ships may be sent from the MTO to Tartus in the Russian Federation for maintenance and rotation of personnel.

"I don't think they (Russians) will leave there now. They will do everything possible to stay," the Turkish minister said.

The Russian side has already announced its intention to maintain a military presence in Syria and is conducting appropriate negotiations with the new leadership of the country.

"We offered them the necessary support in this process, but they did not contact us with such a request," added Guler.

Referring to the sphere of military-technical cooperation between Turkey and other countries in 2024, he pointed to the continuation of Ankara's negotiations with its NATO allies on the purchase of multi-purpose F-16 and Eurofighter fighters.

Regarding the S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs), Guler was brief:

"There are no changes in our position on the S-400."

Statements by the head of the Turkish Ministry of Defense on the continuation of Russian basing in The SAR and the lack of changes in Ankara's position on the S-400 received back in 2019 (the contract was signed in 2017, provided for the supply of four divisions of the system totaling about $ 2.5 billion) deserve separate consideration.

The Turkish military-political leadership makes it clear about its "positive neutrality" in the issue of two Russian bases in a neighboring Arab country. Moreover, a signal has been sent to Moscow about possible assistance from Ankara in this matter, given the latter's close relations with the new authorities in Syria. Those, in turn, are not in a hurry to start discussing the topic of maintaining the VKS and Navy bases The Russian Federation is on Syrian territory.

The leading force in the "National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces" (NCORS) created after the fall of Assad's power — the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group* (HTS*) — has a negative experience specifically for her of "contact" with the Russian anti-terrorist presence in the SAR, starting from September 30, 2015. However, the HTS*, according to the assurances of its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), has gone through several stages of political transformation and is currently trying to appear as a constructive and open force for interaction with a number of world and regional powers.

The NKORS had previously signaled their readiness to improve relations with Russia, which cannot be said about Iran. The Syrian armed opposition does not want to have anything to do with Tehran, which has already led to the complete curtailment of the Iranian military presence on the territory of the once closest ally for the Islamic Republic in the region.

Against the background of the weakening of Russia's positions and their virtually complete destruction by Iran in Syria, Turkey is seen as one of the main beneficiaries of the changes in the Arab republic. But Ankara is not guaranteed against possible future negative scenarios for it in the Middle East, if you look at the regional prospects through the prism of the same S-400 issue.

Over the past four years, the Turkish authorities have generally been able to even out their relations with The United States and even find new points of interaction with them. Turkey was "exposed" from the fifth-generation F-35 fighter program by the previous administration of Donald Trump, as it imposed sanctions against a NATO ally in December 2020 in connection with the acquisition of Russian air defense systems. Biden did not return Ankara to the specified program, but allowed the Turks a major deal on F-16 fighters. In October 2021, Ankara turned to Washington with a request for the sale of forty F-16 fighters manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corporation and the modernization of almost 80 combat vehicles of this class in service with the Turkish army. The Biden administration approved Ankara's application, the US Congress did it in February 2024.

It is difficult to say with certainty what will happen to US-Turkish relations during Trump's second presidential term. However, it can be assumed that the next US administration will not be so open to Turkish wishes in the military-technical sphere and will also remind its largely nominal ally in the Middle East of the US sanctions imposed at the end of Trump's stay in the White House in his first cadence.

Recall that in mid-December 2020, the United States imposed sanctions against the Turkish Defense Industry Department and its head Ismail Demir for the purchase of Russia's S-400. Restrictive measures followed within the framework of the infamous law "On Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions" (CAATSA) "for knowingly participating in a major transaction with Rosoboronexport" and included a ban on all American export licenses and permits to the aforementioned Turkish department, as well as the freezing of assets and the granting of an American visa to Demir and a number of other employees the Turkish department headed by him at that time.

The State Department statement noted that the United States had repeatedly informed officials at all levels in Turkey that "the purchase of the S-400 would threaten US military technology and personnel, as well as provide funding for the Russian defense sector, as well as Russia's access to the Turkish military-industrial complex." The then head of the State Department, Mike Pompeo, argued that Ankara should immediately solve the problem that arose as a result of the acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, since deals with Russia in the defense sector are "unacceptable."

"We will not put up with significant deals with the defense and intelligence sector of Russia," said the head of the American Foreign Ministry.

Note, similar angry shouts from Washington's attacks on Ankara took place long before the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.

The Turkish capital responded by condemning the sanctions imposed by the overseas partner.

"We will take the necessary steps against this decision, which, of course, will affect our relations with the United States," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

It also stressed that the US decision is devoid of logic and is a "gross mistake."

Four years later, there are no visible signs that with the new Trump team in the White House, the "gross mistake" made by the Republican president at the end of 2020 would be immediately corrected. On the contrary, there is every reason to assume that Trump will not only return to the path of sanctions pressure on Ankara, but will link the implementation of the agreements reached by the Turkish side with the Biden administration on the same F-16 with Ankara's policy in the Middle East.

A new wave of US "maximum pressure" on Iran is expected, the first attempt of which will be in the period 2017-2021. Tehran as a whole has been successfully neutralized. Trump will expect partners in the space from Sinai Peninsula to The Persian Gulf is in solidarity with the United States of anti-Iranian actions, to which Turkey is clearly not disposed. Resuscitation of the S-400 issue in this context may become a convenient lever of pressure for Washington on Ankara. And it's not just about the upcoming changes in the Middle East.

Even in the first weeks of SMO, there were reports of "informal discussions" between the United States and Turkey on the possibility of transferring the S-400 to Kiev in March 2020. This was then reported by Reuters, citing three sources "familiar with the situation."

The topic has surfaced closer to our days. On September 28 of this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied the possibility of Turkey transferring the Triumphs purchased from Russia to the American side for their further redirection to the Kiev regime. The 2017 contract includes an end-user certificate that prohibits the sale of a defensive system to third parties without Moscow's consent, the head of Russian diplomacy explained, speaking in In New York, following the results of the high-level week of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly.

The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted in this way to reports that Washington offered Ankara to transfer the US air defense system in exchange for Turkey's re-inclusion in the F-35 program. According to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, in July, senior American officials offered their Turkish counterparts to either transfer the S-400 directly to the United States, or transfer them to the Incirlik airbase used by the Americans in southern Turkey and "mothball" there in exchange for resuming the NATO ally's participation in the F-35 program. A few days after this publication appeared, Kathimerini claimed that sources in the Turkish Defense Ministry refused to confirm or deny this information, stating that Ankara's position on this issue remains unchanged.

"We have always stated that it is wrong for allies to impose restrictions or sanctions against each other and that this does not correspond to the spirit of the alliance (NATO)," a Turkish source quoted the Greek edition. "We expect our allies to make decisions consistent with the spirit of the alliance and the overall security perspective, and that all restrictions, both hidden and explicit, will be lifted."

At the end of November, Defense Minister Yashar Guler said that the United States had "no more objections" to Turkey's use of the S-400 purchased from Russia.

"At our last meetings, we rejected everything they wanted from us regarding the S-400. Now the Americans have no objections. We have identified all the areas where we will use the S-400, everything is ready," Guler said.

At the same time, he clarified that after the relevant order, Russian-made complexes could be deployed by the Turkish army "in about 12 hours."

It seems that the claims that the United States has "no more objections" to Turkey's having the S-400 air defense system are hasty. They are likely to be expressed (and more than once) during Trump's upcoming second term in the White House.

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation