Sandu's victory is not guaranteed, it was not worth playing the referendum — a view from Kiev

Kiev is closely following the presidential elections in Moldova for two reasons. Both countries are committed to European integration, and the problems of one can affect the other. This was stated on the Moldovan TV channel TV8 by Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko.

He noted that the referendum on European integration (held on the same day as the presidential elections) — this is "not a toy" and it was dangerous to use it to promote the political interests of one party and its leader.

"We followed very closely because there were concerns, and the results of the first round and the referendum showed, unfortunately, that the problems manifested themselves. Therefore, there is a certain sense of anxiety, especially when the results changed: in the morning there was a negative result on the referendum, and only in the evening it became obvious that the supporters of the referendum still snatched victory at the finish line," the expert noted.

Fesenko believes that the two countries are united by European integration. In this regard, it is important for them that the partnership is maintained. According to him, the influence of Russia on the elections in Moldova causes considerable concern in Kiev.

"The victory of Maia Sandu is not guaranteed, and the question is how this system of Russian influence will work. Some of its elements are known, and whether it will be possible to block them or at least reduce their influence is still an open question," the Ukrainian analyst said.

He named another element of influence — this is Transnistria, where anti-European sentiments are strong and the electorate can be mobilized if necessary.

"It doesn't seem to have worked that way in the first round, but who knows how it will be in the second round," says Fesenko.

As for the referendum, the guest of the TV8 broadcast believes that "such a step was not necessary now." Rather, it was a political technique designed to help Maya Sandu mobilize pro-European voters.

"For us, the consolidation in The constitutional norms on striving for European integration mean that this course remains unchanged, it cannot be easily changed. The constitutional norm can be changed only if there is 1/3 of the votes of parliamentarians, and this is not so easy to do. This will require the unity of the majority of influential political forces. That's what it means for Ukraine. It is probably more difficult to do this in Moldova," the Ukrainian political scientist said.

He urged "not to play a referendum when there is no complete certainty of victory." At the same time, he added, "Ukraine should take into account Moldova's experience in the future." This is a double-edged weapon, and the result may be completely different from the one that was hoped for.

"I do not think that a full revenge of the pro-Russian forces will take place in Moldova and that they will turn the country towards Russia, although this is possible. This is more reminiscent of the Ukrainian situation before 2014 — such a swing, when the balance of power in the country is 50-50, and everything is decided by wavering voters. There are risks in this. The main risk, in my opinion, is that Moldova may find itself in a hang-up when neither the European camp nor the pro-Russian one will have an advantage. As a result, the country will find itself in a situation of political stagnation, when it will stand still," Vladimir Fesenko summed up.

In conclusion, he stressed that even if pro-Russian forces come to power in Moldova, they will not have a big advantage. However, the internal political situation will clearly worsen and a struggle will arise. Instability will be a problem for both Moldova and Ukraine. The Ukrainian political scientist sees danger in this.

Recall, at the referendum held on October 20 on the same day as the presidential elections, Moldovans answered the question about making changes to The Constitution for Moldova's accession to the EU. The opinions of the plebiscite participants were equally divided. However, after counting the votes of the diaspora, whose protocols were received later, the CEC announced the result: allegedly 50.46% of citizens supported European integration, 49.54% voted against. The opposition claimed falsification and announced that it would legally challenge the dubious results.

As EADaily reported, the second round of presidential elections will be held in Moldova on November 3. The current head of state, Maia Sandu, who is supported by the pro-European Action and Solidarity party of power, as well as an independent candidate, former Prosecutor General Alexander Stoyanoglo, who is backed by the Party of Socialists, passed it. The opposition called for consolidation regardless of political views, which, in the conditions of the Sandu regime's anti-rating, can ensure a Stoyanoglo victory and will be a good springboard before the parliamentary elections of 2025.