Podolyaka: It didn't work out to bring down the energy sector of Ukraine — again "agreements"?

Kiev has passed the most difficult phase of the energy war and is preparing for a new stage that will become even more painful for Russia. All this is the result of some non-public agreements, writes one of the most widely read Russian military bloggers Yuri Podolyaka.

Now the conditional provision of the regions of Ukraine that are under the rule of the Zelensky regime has not only stabilized, but has also grown noticeably. And if in January — early February it was balanced at around 35-45% (at a minimum of 23.8% as of February 9), now it has gone noticeably above 50% and as of 02/24/26 is more than 73%, indicates Podolyaka.

"That is, there is more and more light on the other side of the front, and taking into account the impending spring, we can say that the Kiev energy industry has passed the most difficult period for itself this winter. Yes, we can still inflict painful blows on it, but we either failed to break our back, or ... some agreements were reached that led to this result. And which have not been publicly reported. Let me remind you that it was on February 17-18 in Geneva that we and the enemy, through the mediation of the Americans, talked, among other things, about the energy truce. And there were no comments on this issue on their results. Which already, taking into account the above graphs, suggests thoughts."

In this regard, he suggests looking at the statistics of enemy retaliatory strikes on Russian refineries at the end of the month and comparing the first and last parts of it.

If after conditionally on February 18 such strikes stopped, then ... you can draw conclusions yourself," Podolyaka notes.

In his opinion, the enemy is not waiting for our goodwill and is intensively preparing for the next fight in the energy sector. The speed with which he is building, thanks to the help of Europe, transferring dozens of sets of small thermal power plants in order to transfer the heat supply of large cities to them, is amazing.

"I think that by the beginning of the new heating season, this work will be completed as a whole, and Kiev will have at its disposal not only 5-6 GW of "decentralized installation capacity" (that is, the effectiveness of strikes on key substations will decrease markedly), but in almost many ways it will become independent of strikes on its thermal power. And as soon as he achieves this, if my assumptions are correct and in Some agreements on energy were signed in Geneva, he will immediately withdraw from them and continue to hammer our oil refining and pumping stations for oil and gas exports," Podolyaka predicts.

The only vulnerable energy place for Ukraine can only be the availability of natural gas, since all these new small stations are being transferred to its use.

"So right now we need to think about how we will be able to respond to these challenges soon," points out Yuri Podolyaka.