The IMF does not ask, does not recommend, but demands to reduce social benefits in Kazakhstan

The International Monetary Fund demands to reduce social benefits and consumer loans in Kazakhstan. This is reported by Argumenty i Fakty Kazakhstan.

Based on the results of a two-week trip to Astana and Almaty, the fund came to the conclusion that the country's economy is in a state of overheating. GDP growth is expected to exceed 6% in 2025 due to the oil sector and increased domestic demand. However, inflation may approach 13%. Among the key factors:

• soft fiscal policy;
• active consumer lending;
• large transfers from the National Fund.

"In 2026, growth will slow down to 4.5%, but inflation will still remain at about 11%. In the medium term, it may decrease to the target value of five percent, but only if tough measures are taken: reduction of benefits, restriction of the public sector and rejection of large—scale subsidies," IMF analysts note.

The Fund expressed support for the decision of the National Bank to raise the base rate, but focused on the importance of close cooperation with the government. Experts believe that monetary policy alone is not enough to achieve the goals set.

To combat inflation, the IMF calls for pooling budget funds and controlling additional expenses of state-owned companies. According to the fund's experts, such expenses offset the results of anti-inflationary measures.

In addition, it is strongly recommended to limit the growth of consumer loans. Despite the stability of the banking system, high demand and insufficient assessment of the solvency of borrowers can lead to risks of debt burden.

Separately, the mission pointed out the priority tasks for Kazakhstan:

• reducing the role of the state in the economy;
• private sector development;
• reforming the institution of property;
• conducting transparent privatization;
• investments in infrastructure, education, healthcare and digital technologies.