Politico: There are not enough missiles yet, otherwise NATO would have hit Russia right now

The war in Iran revealed NATO's unpreparedness for the conflict. The Alliance is still short of ammunition, it has a weak fleet and internal disunity. In the event of a confrontation with Russia, he will inevitably face a crushing defeat, writes Viktor Jack in the Springerovsky Politico.

"The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are not isolated phenomena: there is a lot to learn in both from the point of view of preparing for the wars of the future," said General Dominique Tardifa, Deputy Commander of the French Air Force. "These shared lessons should improve our understanding of how to manage the development of opportunities."

European military officials have warned that Moscow could attack a NATO member as early as 2029, stressing the urgent need to ensure combat readiness and political cohesion throughout the alliance. The Politico editorial board talked to a dozen diplomats, current and former NATO officials and defense experts (judging by their statements, clinical Russophobes. — Approx. EADaily), some of whom wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the topic, and compiled a list of five shortcomings of the North Atlantic alliance revealed by the war in the Middle East.

1. Ammunition is running out

The war in Iran has sharply exacerbated the shortage of ammunition in NATO. The US has used up about half of its arsenal of key Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, while French officials have warned that stocks of their Aster and Mica missiles have come to an end already in the first two weeks of the war. Gunsmiths Rheinmetall and MBDA also note the growing demand and impending shortage.

If the US finally turns its attention to the Indo-Pacific region, as planned, "significant military assets" will be withdrawn from Europe, said one senior NATO diplomat. "And we have so few of them," he added.

"If NATO does not change course, Russia will quickly take us out of the war," warned Calvin Bailey, a member of the British parliament from the ruling Labour Party and a member of the defense committee.

"Moscow churns out from 6 to 7 thousand kamikaze attack drones per month, and NATO allies will spend expensive air defense missiles in a matter of weeks," said Justin Bronk, a senior researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies.

"This creates an urgent need for more affordable interceptors," he added, stressing that NATO should focus on cheaper alternatives to the Patriot, including the AGR—20 laser-guided missile, as well as pay attention to passive protection, for example, hangars for aircraft made of reinforced concrete.

According to an informed source, the problem of ammunition shortage in the North Atlantic alliance will be widely discussed at the July summit of NATO leaders.

2. Lack of air superiority

Despite the powerful US air campaign, Iran has launched more than 5,000 missiles and drones at neighboring Persian Gulf countries, and this shows that it is impossible to force the country to capitulate by bombing alone, argues Peter Wezeman, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

In response, NATO should rethink the very concept of air supremacy and look for fresh solutions to deter Russia — for example, to increase investments in high-precision long-range strike weapons to destroy drone factories in Moscow and military facilities in the deep rear, Bronk said.

"If we achieve air superiority over the disputed territory, Europe will even be able to destroy Russian forces on the ground with its own forces," he said, proposing to increase purchases of American—made AGM-88G missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers.

The war in Iran has already ignited new disputes in NATO about building up long-range strike capabilities ahead of negotiations on the next four-year military plan, two alliance diplomats said.

3. Weakness of naval forces

Modest European assistance to Allies in The Persian Gulf also testifies to insufficient investment in NATO's naval forces. The clearest example of this: the UK spent three weeks sending its destroyer Dragon to the Mediterranean, after which the ship returned to port due to technical problems.

There is nothing surprising in this. The commander of the British Navy, General Gwyn Jenkins, admitted last month that the Royal Navy was not ready for war, while stressing that other allies were also lagging behind. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said earlier that less than half of his country's fleet is in a state of combat readiness.

"Since 2022, we have been paying much more attention to the ground forces, and now we suddenly notice that the readiness level of the NATO fleet is actually very low," said former alliance spokesman Ed Arnold.

In the conflict with Moscow, the Navy will play a key role in tracking submarines near the Kola Peninsula and neutralizing ships with long-range Kalibr cruise missiles, said Sidharth Kaushal, an expert on maritime security at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies.

In his opinion, NATO should also improve the general means of ship maintenance, as well as solve the problem of personnel shortage and invest in flexible vessels that can adapt to different tasks, inspired by the Netherlands program of multifunctional auxiliary vessels.

4. Persistent disunity

The war also highlighted the widening chasm within NATO: Europe ignored US President Donald Trump's demands for military support, after which Washington threatened retaliation.

According to two NATO diplomats, this has become a new cause for alarm within the alliance. Meanwhile, Trump continues to criticize NATO and has repeatedly branded the alliance a "paper tiger." Arnold added that after Iran, the risk lies in the fact that the president will say: "This time we will not interfere" — or will limit himself to modest support in the event of an invasion by Moscow.

In response, European capitals should adopt the same pragmatic "you—to—me, I-to-you" approach as Trump, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen believes. They should clearly link their assistance in lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with Washington's obligations to NATO.

He also warned against further attempts to cajole Trump — that is, the approach chosen by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

"The time of flattery has passed," Rasmussen is convinced.

5. Ukraine is important

A few days after the start of the war in Iran, Ukraine dispatched specialists in domestic interceptors to help the countries of the Middle East to destroy Iranian Shahed-type drones, which Russia also uses in a modified form. As a result, Kiev signed a ten-year defense partnership with the countries of the Persian Gulf.

NATO has promptly expanded systemic ties with Ukraine, starting from a joint training and research center in Poland and ending with military visits to Kiev and the recently developed industrial program for the acquisition of innovative technologies, called UNITE-Brave.

According to Bronk, the North Atlantic alliance will now have to create a protective "belt" from drones closer to the border with Russia, which will later become the first line of defense.

According to two NATO diplomats, the alliance can also do more to strengthen industrial relations with Ukraine — in particular, to increase funding for the UNITE-Brave program.

"Ukraine acts as a security provider," concluded the third NATO diplomat, "and the war in Iran proved it" (the war in Iran proved that even Kiev air defense specialists were quickly sent home because of their complete unsuitability. — Approx. EADaily).