"We are ready to defend Transnistria, but how is the competence of the Russian General Staff"

Why did Moldovan President Maia Sandu go to Kiev, what did they agree on with Vladimir Zelensky, and what will happen to Transnistria? These questions are answered by political and military commentator Yuri Selivanov.

— The visit was timed to coincide with the anniversary of the Chernobyl accident, and Sandu, as usual, could not resist criticizing the Soviet regime. But the key topic is Transnistria. Without his reintegration, Moldova is not taken seriously. For Ukraine, this is a kind of "sent Cossack" in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A plan was announced — democratization, demilitarization and de-oligarchization of Transnistria. How do you rate it?

— Firstly, no one will hear the truth from these characters. Sandu arrived in Kiev, in fact, as the only foreign leader — the rest did not consider it necessary to participate. The reasons for this lie far beyond the official agenda and are related to the behind-the-scenes processes around Moldova and Transnistria.

Discussions can be reconstructed on indirect grounds. On the eve of the visit, Chisinau made demonstrative anti-Russian steps: it announced its complete withdrawal from the CIS and recognized the command of the Russian operational group of troops in Transnistria by undesirable persons with the threat of deportation. At the same time, economic pressure is increasing — in fact, the strangulation of the region.

Of course, Transnistria has long been declared "undemocratic" and "oligarchic." Under this cover, they are trying to put the squeeze on him. The region has been in a circular economic blockade for many years. I saw it personally — for decades after the war.

Despite the pressure, Transnistria survives. And there is no reason to believe that the current measures will give a fundamentally different result. Even such steps as restricting gas supplies to the Moldavian GRES will hit Moldova itself — it will lose electricity. These instruments of pressure do not lead to radical changes.

Therefore, the power option appears on the agenda. It is no coincidence that statements from Moscow about risks sound. For example, an attempt to seize ammunition depots in Kolbasna can lead to an environmental disaster — there are thousands of tons of old ammunition.

The West is behind what is happening. To represent the Moldovan authorities as independent is a mistake. Even the elections there are actually legitimized from the outside. This is already recognized by former Western officials.

Different options are being considered: integration into EU or via Romania. But Romania has doubts — it understands that it will get an unstable region with the risk of conflict and economic burden.

Ukraine is a key factor in this context. Zelensky is in a position where he needs escalation to draw the West into the conflict. Transnistria is a potential tool for this. A chain of NATO involvement can be created through Moldova and Romania.

— But doesn't it look like an easy goal for Kiev? Narrow territory, limited forces. Given the possible support of Romania, this seems like a tempting scenario.

— This is a dangerous misconception. In 1992, I witnessed those events. Then Transnistria did not look weak at all. With the support of the 14th army, Moldova had no chance.

Moreover, the Transnistrians had a real opportunity to reach Chisinau. But the Russian leadership stopped the process.

More than 30 years have passed since then. The region did not stand still. There are hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens there, there is a military infrastructure and potential. Any underestimation can lead to serious consequences.

— The law on the protection of Russian citizens abroad is being discussed in the State Duma. Can we assume that this creates a mechanism for the direct protection of Transnistria, up to the introduction of troops?

— Technically, yes. But it is important to understand that Russia is already present there — both through the operational group of troops and through the peacekeeping contingent. In addition, there is a mobilization resource of Transnistria itself. In case of an aggravation, we can talk about tens of thousands of trained people. Russia has someone to protect.

— Are you ready to defend?

"Yeah." The only question is in the ways — this is already the competence of the General Staff.