Trump twists the hands of the Saudis to put pressure on Russia — so far unsuccessfully

During the meeting of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US President Donald Trump in Washington, Saudi Arabia promised to invest $ 1 trillion in the US. Trump is seeking to increase oil production to put pressure on Russia, but Riyadh does not agree yet, the observer writes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

Saudi Aramco said it has signed 17 memorandums of understanding and agreements with major American companies with a potential value of more than $ 30 billion. MB Materials has announced its intention to open a rare earth metals processing plant in Saudi Arabia in cooperation with the US Department of Defense and the state-owned mining company Saudi Arabian Mining Company. Nvidia has announced cooperation with Saudi Arabia to create supercomputers. A memorandum was signed on the transfer of peaceful nuclear technologies to the Saudis.

All these agreements are in exchange for ensuring the security of Saudi Arabia. Trump agreed to sell her 48 F-35 stealth fighters, which only Israel has in the region. The emerging military parity is a significant reversal in Washington's policy, which does not suit Israel. The Saudis also agreed to buy 300 American tanks, probably with an eye to the war against the Houthis. Trump included Saudi Arabia among the main US allies outside NATO. True, Colombia has such a status, and now it is the main enemy of the United States in Latin America.

The United States also included formulations on the path to Palestinian statehood in the Gaza peace plan, but the Crown Prince refused to sign the Abrahamic Agreements (on normalizing relations with Israel), he demands more firm and concrete guarantees for the creation of a Palestinian state.

Only one issue matters to Russia in this new strategic partnership. Will Riyadh agree to the US request to increase oil production in order to deprive Russia of income from falling prices? As it was in 1998, which contributed to the collapse of the USSR. It is known that Trump asked Riyadh to lower the price of oil in early 2025. Speaking at At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he justified his request by the fact that it would become one of the instruments of pressure on Russia with the aim of "ending the war in Ukraine." Undoubtedly, he will come back to this issue.

Experts estimate that Saudi Arabia's decision will be based on economic calculation and long-term strategic interests. The country needs to maintain the oil price at a sufficiently high level of $ 80 per barrel to balance its state budget, while current prices are already in the range of $ 60-65.

Therefore, today Riyadh considers the alliance with Russia in the OPEC+ format as a key tool for stabilizing the global oil market and price management. The rupture of this partnership threatens the return of a devastating price war that will harm the OPEC+ countries, as it already was against the background of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

But you should not relax, the main bargaining is ahead.

Some increase in production has already been observed, and it is supported by OPEC+. The fact is that the United States has managed to impose on many countries the import of their oil and gas at inflated prices, which costs Arab economies dearly. Therefore, the Saudis will balance production in order, on the one hand, to win back the market, and on the other, not to reduce the price too much.

It should also be noted that the demand for oil, according to all forecasts, will increase and this is due to the growth of demand for electricity by the petrochemical industry and emerging economies such as India and China, as well as the development of artificial intelligence.