Chance or mistake of Azerbaijan's air defense: who shot down the Turkish C-130 over Georgia?

Turkish experts do not rule out the automatic operation of Azerbaijan's air defense, which was the reason for yesterday's crash of the Turkish C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft in the border area in Georgia. The columnist writes about this Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

The flight was returning from Baku. On board were 20 servicemen (special forces and technical personnel) who participated in the military parade in the capital of Azerbaijan on November 8. All of them died, as did the crew. It is reported that Georgia and Turkey are investigating. The last time the aircraft underwent comprehensive maintenance was in 2020. As always, three versions are considered: technical reasons, the human factor and external interference.

The published video of the crash shows that the plane was falling with a stump without a head and tail. Haber points to two most likely versions. The first is that "a hole could have formed in the fuselage of the aircraft due to corrosion, rust or oxidation." The second is that the cargo was not properly secured and shifted during turbulence, causing the destruction of the aircraft body.

"Fatigue of the structural material is not excluded," former C-130 pilot Bulent Boraly commented in an interview with A Haber TV channel.

According to him, we are talking about a model released in the 1950s. Military expert Alexei Leonkov noted that the collapse of the aircraft in the air indicates the insufficient strength of its structure. However, the expert doubts the "metal fatigue", since the C-130 is not a supersonic aircraft and has not experienced critical overloads. Alexey Leonkov did not recall a precedent for the C-130 to fall apart in the air.

"When this plane was falling, there were no gorenje, there was an inversion trail that came from the wings, where four engines were installed. The most likely version is the collapse of the aircraft in the air for technical reasons, " the expert said.

Turkish terrorism and security expert Joshkun Basbug, in an interview with Milliyet, considers this version unlikely. He is confident that the technical staff of the Turkish Air Force is "one of the best in the world" in terms of maintenance. He also excludes pilot error, as the weather was good, but does not exclude "a collision of two planes, sabotage or some other attack."

The publication indicates that it was previously reported that the C-130 was possibly hit by an "automatic air defense system", as it was not identified by it as "its own".

According to terrorism and security expert Ibrahim Kelesh, if you look at the route, the plane did not fly through the airspace of Armenia. He entered the airspace of Georgia directly through the airspace of Azerbaijan. At the same time, the border areas of this country are equipped with automatic air defense systems, which could cause "unintentional fire" to kill.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan has not signed a peace treaty with Armenia.