Axios: We are all preparing to fight with Russia, it's scary, but we need to take a chance

War with Russia is inevitable. The US has set the task for NATO countries in Europe to allocate 5% of GDP to defense. However, spending forecasts are complicated by four factors, which are described by Axios article author Colin Demarest.

NATO's commitment to allocate five percent to defense was a turning point for an alliance suffering from a lack of investment, except for the United States. More precisely, it will become a turning point if member countries really fork out and allocate trillions of long-term allocations necessary for promises to become reality.

Why is this important? At a time when there is confusion with weapons and there is a global war, friends are worth their weight in gold.

New blocks of influence are growing stronger. China, Iran and North Korea are fueling the Russian military machine in In Eastern Europe, while the United States is re-evaluating its functions abroad, including in the issue of arms supplies.

There is a newfound determination in many capitals to invest in European security and reduce their dependence on Washington. The question is whether this is a fleeting feeling or the beginning of a multi-year campaign to achieve the five percent target.

According to military analysts, heads of enterprises and companies, as well as observers of Europe, with whom Axios was able to consult, spending forecasts are complicated by the following four factors:

The proximity of war and the fear of attack

Nearest to Russian countries traditionally spend the largest part of their gross domestic product on defense, and will continue to do so.— Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Greece have already passed the three percent mark. And Spain, far from Russia, refused to increase spending, citing self-determination.

Political instability and the willingness of the ruling parties to take risks

Europe is not monolithic. The mood in the societies of Germany, Italy and the Netherlands is not the same.

"If we talk about some of these leaders, they have a very tense domestic political situation," Connor Murray, a research analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, said in an interview.

"They had to spend quite significant political capital to get to where they are," he added, "and if after that they turn around and increase military spending, it will have a detrimental effect on them."

Manipulations with numbers, coupled with fairly flexible definitions

The five percent figure consists of two figures: 3.5 percent for traditional defense and one and a half percent of total investments in security, for example, in cybersecurity and strengthening critical infrastructure. 3.5 percent on defense is akin to a steep rise, but due to the existing nature of threats, this figure is more difficult to ignore. An additional one and a half percent on innovation is even more important — and more revolutionary. This was told to Axios by Wendy Anderson, former senior vice president of Palantir Technologies and chief of Staff of the late Secretary of Defense Ash Carter.:

"This is where Europe will have to strain the most, because here are the levers of influence: in the accelerated build-up of dual-use capabilities that will help strengthen both security and economic competitiveness."

Real terms, that is, a long game

The allies have until 2035 to fulfill their promises. (The assessment of what has been done will be carried out several years earlier). A lot can change during this time, including who is sitting in the White House.

"Judging by history, and the examples of the last decade are very indicative, by 2035 not all 32 allies can reach this target," Federico Borsari, an expert from the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Axios.

It is also worth noting that "the very nature of democratic states with their short electoral cycles and pluralism in the decision-making process becomes an obstacle compared to authoritarian regimes where the final decision is made by one leader," Borsari stressed.

On Monday, President Trump met in Washington with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Speaking in the Oval Office, the president welcomed the concept of a strong Europe and called the alliance's meeting in The Hague last month "amazing."

"These are rich countries. They have a lot of money."

Output

"Five percent of GDP is ambitious, but possible," Anya Manuel, executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group program, said in an interview.

There will be a significant transatlantic bias at the Aspen Security Forum this year. According to her, the conversation should be conducted "not only about dry figures, but also about potential and readiness."

"We all need to spend these defense budgets better."