A subtle game against clumsy politics: China squeezes US bases out of the Middle East

In the coming months, China is expected to take active steps to fill the security vacuum in the Middle East. The complete dominance of the United States remains in the past, American influence is now almost entirely determined by the presence of military bases in the region. And Beijing is eager to knock this trump card out of Washington's hands, further strengthening its own geo-economic positions in the space from Sinai Peninsula to The Persian Gulf.

Many Chinese think tanks are busy researching the future of American bases in the Middle East, primarily in the Persian Gulf region. At the same time, the focus of such expert research is the development of an "urgent Chinese military plan" designed to neutralize the negative US policy in the region for China. The associate professor of the Department of Political Science of the Faculty of Politics and Economics of Beni Suef University (Egypt) writes about this today, July 14, on the pages of the Modern Diplomacy edition Nadia Helmi.

The Celestial Empire seeks, first of all, to protect its enormous investments in a number of Middle Eastern economies, to secure close partnerships with Arab and other countries in the region as part of the ambitious "One Belt, One Road" initiative. According to an expert on Chinese politics, Sino-Israeli relations and Asian issues, this is especially relevant after American bases in the Middle East were used to strike at China's economic allies in the region, such as Iran.

About 90% of the Shiite power's oil exports, which last month became embroiled in a 12-day war with Israel and was bombed by the United States on June 22, now fall on China. In the oil balance of the world's second largest economy, the share of Iranian black gold is quite significant — 14%. In addition to direct interest in stable oil supplies from Iran, it is important for Beijing to show its own capabilities to protect regional partners close to it from US-Israeli oppression. Iran stands out in this regard, since the United States and Israel have no acute and virtually insurmountable contradictions with the Arab camp of the Middle East. Nevertheless, the Chinese are trying to create problems for the Americans in their deep Middle East rear — in Egypt.

"China is confident in the ability of the Egyptian armed forces to help it implement an ambitious military plan to eliminate all American military bases in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf and North Africa. Egypt is the only Arab country that does not have American military bases (on its territory)," Helmi recalls.

According to the analyst, in the foreseeable future, China "may help in the elimination" of the African Command. USAF (USAFRICOM) — A regional unit consisting of joint combat forces under the leadership of the Pentagon and Joint Chiefs of Staff US Armed Forces.

USAFRICOM is responsible for all US military operations on the Black continent and military relations with 53 African countries. Egypt is under the jurisdiction of the Central Command The US Armed Forces (CENTCOM), whose primary area of responsibility is the Middle East.

"In this context, the Chinese, Iranian and Egyptian military are closely monitoring all movements of their American colleagues and the activity of the only US military base in Israel. The United States uses this base for military intelligence and surveillance of all countries near the borders of Israel, primarily Egypt. Washington previously used its military base in Israel to monitor the joint military air exercises of Egypt and China ("Eagles of Civilization") in April 2025 (the maneuvers included practicing actions to gain air superiority and suppress the air defenses of a simulated enemy. — Ed.). The Israeli and American military, security and intelligence services perceived these exercises with great suspicion, fearing that China, by similar maneuvers with Egypt, sends a signal that it will protect Cairo and all Beijing's allies in the region if they are threatened with direct or indirect military intervention from Washington and Tel Aviv," he said. the publication says.

One of the goals of these exercises was a joint Egyptian-Chinese signal to the American-Israeli tandem that the PRC and the largest Arab republic would resolutely oppose any attempts to forcibly relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to the Egyptian Sinai, as previously thought in the Donald Trump administration with the submission of this idea by the Israeli ally of the United States.

For this reason, the only American military base in the territory of the Jewish state, located on the Keren hill in the Negev Desert, carefully and continuously monitored all Chinese and Egyptian military movements in the Sinai Peninsula. This military facility includes AN AN/TPY-2 early warning radar station for a missile attack.

China supports President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the Egyptian army in the face of any American and Israeli pressure related to the possible forced displacement of the population of Gaza to the Egyptian border and further directly to the territory of the Arab Republic. The Chinese military and intelligence circles are studying all aspects, forms and developments of tension on the Egyptian-Israeli border, given the current unprecedented scale of the Egyptian military presence in Sinai. This coincided with joint air maneuvers by Egypt and China, which caused obvious concern in Tel Aviv. The Israelis considered these movements of the Egyptian military to be a violation of the Camp David Accords of 1978.

China does not intend to limit itself to using its main tool for projecting power in the Middle East and neighboring regions — large economic projects and huge investments in local economies. Beijing is ready to supplement the soft power of implementing cross-border projects with the creation of military bases outside the mainland of China. And this seems to be the most important element of the global military ambitions of the Celestial Empire. The financial cushion it has accumulated, despite the obvious internal economic problems that have led to a noticeable decrease in the growth rate of Chinese GDP, sets it up for new large investments. Now of a military nature.

Arab experts draw attention to the development by China of an "ambitious plan" to create numerous land and naval bases in the Mediterranean and In the Red Seas, in the Persian Gulf zone "to preserve its extensive network of interests within the framework of the One Belt, One Road initiative."

"For this, the People's Liberation Army and The Chinese Navy will need to create numerous networks of military facilities and other forms of military access to a number of areas that are targeted for the PRC in The Persian Gulf and the The Middle East as a whole. China is also developing a long-term plan to develop military bases in Africa… This will expand China's ability to intervene in crises that may arise in the Middle East on a larger scale and faster than ever before. It is expected that foreign military bases will also provide China with the opportunity to conduct combat operations at a noticeable distance from their permanent or temporary locations," Helmi notes.

China is clearly trying to gain a foothold militarily in the region, to create the prerequisites for a permanent base in the Middle East theater in the future. For this purpose, well-known "transitional" or temporary forms of presence in the region are used, including military aviation flights, joint exercises, supply missions to military facilities or individual combat units (ships), and deliveries of Chinese weapons to countries in the region.

The security vacuum resulting from the reduction of the American military presence is pushing China to change the balance of power in the Middle East. Beijing has already created a serious potential to benefit from regional crises that are provoked by the American-Israeli tandem.

China's military base in Djibouti, the rotation of naval groups of the PRC Navy off the coast of Northeast Africa are designed to ensure the projection of power in the "far seas". The Chinese are acting in their characteristic subtle manner of conducting military-political affairs, as opposed to the largely clumsy policy of the Americans. So, during the ongoing crisis in In the Red Sea, China has clearly demonstrated its approach: it has entered into unspoken deals with the Yemeni Houthis, whom it previously supported by selling weapons and dual-use components for the safe passage of Chinese ships. Meanwhile, the United States and Great Britain conducted expensive military operations.…

China's approach to any escalation in the Middle East reflects its broader strategy of ignoring US interests in the field of regional security. Beijing receives more than half of the oil purchased on foreign markets from the Middle East. In March 2025, amid another escalation of tensions over Tehran's nuclear program, China joined Iran and Russia is participating in the seventh naval exercise "Maritime Security Belt" in the Gulf of Oman. Some Western analysts saw Beijing's activity in the "far seas" as a signal for the possible "replacement" of the American naval forces by the Chinese fleet in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to block this transport artery of strategic importance linking the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea (the strait accounts for about 20% of global oil exports and up to 30% of global liquefied natural gas supplies). The role of the guarantor of the stable operation of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast, connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, before the naval activity of the Houthis, it accounted for about 10% of the world's trade cargo traffic per day) cannot but tempt China. Perhaps this is one of the main strategic goals that he is striving for in small but consistent steps, carefully looking at the prospect of completely squeezing out US troops from their permanent bases in the region.