Kiev keeps raving about an upcoming IMF tranche. Meantime, nothing terrible will happen to Ukraine if IMF management refuses to provide money. Quite the contrary, another foreign exchange tranche will just aggravate the economic situation in the country.
These remarks unusual for Ukraine came from economist Victor Skarshevsky during a press conference in Kiev.
He said if the IMF refuses to provide two billion dollars, the country’s foreign debt will be reduced by 2.5 billion dollars, which Ukraine has to repay against its previous debts to IMF this year.
In addition, the expert said, if IMF stops providing loans to Ukraine, the country will redeem all its borrowings to the Fund by 2025.
“If the IMF provides these 2.5 billion, we will have to pay them back at once, like we did during the past two years, when Ukraine received 2 billion and paid them back. If Ukraine receives tranche this year, it will become the world’s leader by the amount of debts to IMF. Besides, the government and president will get more reasons for PR-campaign. ‘as you see, IMF gives money to us, which means that we are carrying out reforms, we are great reformers,’ they will say. In fact, the requirements of IMF memorandum have nothing in common with real reforms,” he said.
The expert is sure that without IMF tranche, hryvnia will not depreciate and will not spark a default, as “Ukraine has sufficient gold and forex reserves to serve all its debts this year.”