Last Friday, on Jan 12, 2018, the bloc of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) met in Berlin to consider forming a new cabinet on the basis of a “Grand Coalition.” As a result, they adopted a 28-page paper that is supposed to form the basis for the coalition talks. Angela Merkel looked tired but satisfied. SPD is her last hope. She has no choice. Her future as Chancellor depends on that party.
But how come SPD leader Martin Schulz has changed his attitude? Some three months ago, he said that such a coalition was impossible. The official explanation for his turnabout is that the coalition is a way for him to push his pro-European social agenda. That is, his priority is European policy. They say that for the sake of the coalition, Merkel is ready to revise the core of her European policy – fiscal austerity – a policy requiring that the budget deficit of the EU members should not exceed 3% of their GPDs.
But SPD’s real motive may be different: whenever facing a choice between power and the interests of their voters, the German Social Democrats chose power. Besides, Schulz is a man of the system and can all but ignore the opinion of the true bosses of German democracy that Germany must put an end to its government crisis.
But this does not mean that the crisis is over. Most of the analysts are cautiously optimistic. The point is that before entering the coalition talks, Schulz will have to consult his party members. He is supposed to do it during a special SPD congress on Jan 21. But even if the party approves his initiative, it may require something the CDU-CSU bloc will find hard to accept.
If everything goes well, the coalition talks may be started in late Jan to be finished in Mar. But even if by that time the sides have a ready agreement in hand, it will have to be approved by SPD grassroots. That is, it is for them to decide if there will be a “Grand Coalition” in Germany or not.
So, the Jan 21 congress will be decisive for Schulz and his authority. For the sake of a coalition with Merkel, he has staked his own political future. First definitely against any coalition with the CDU-CSU bloc, Schulz is now ready to be Merkel’s loyal minister and this change may certainly shatter his voters’ confidence in his party. If on Jan 21 his colleagues vote against his initiative, he will have to resign.
Last Sunday, a day after the preliminary consultations, a SPD conference in Saxony-Anhalt voted against the “Grand Coalition” and consequently against Schulz. But Saxony-Anhalt does not have a decisive say in SPD – during the Jan 21 congress, it will have just 7 out of total 600 delegates. But its vote has pointed to a certain split in the party. Thuringia and Bavaria are also against Schulz’s initiative. The same is true for Michael Mueller, the Governing Mayor of Berlin.
SPD grassroots are mostly critical of the initiative. Over the last years, SPD has lost lots of voters and is as far from power as never before. Many of the SPD members are displeased to know that the 28-page platform approved last Friday does not contain clauses stipulating a rise in the wealth tax and abolishment of private medical insurance.
At least 1/5 or even 1/3 of SPD members may vote against the “Grand Coalition” plan. So, Schulz has one week to turn them about.
North Rhine-Westphalia will have a decisive vote during the congress: it will have 1/4 of all delegates there. Formerly, the leader of the party Michael Groschek was skeptical of the “Grand Coalition” plan, but last week, he changed his attitude in response to the clause stipulating larger subsidies for municipalities.
Even though most of the SPD members want to see Merkel in minority and their own party in opposition, only 6 out of 40 SPD leaders have voted against the results of last Friday’s consultations. So, during the Jan 21 congress, we may witness a fight of SPD leaders with their grassroots. The last statement by CSU member Alexander Dobrindt has made this fight even more possible. Last Sunday, Dobrindt said that on Jan 21, Schulz will have to crush “a revolt of dwarfs” in his party.
But, to be honest, not only Schulz but also Merkel have become hostage to the attitude of the “dwarfs,” i.e. SPD grassroots, as it is for them to decide in the long run. Last Sunday, Minister President of Bavaria, CSU member Markus Soeder told Bild that he would no longer make any concessions to the Social Democrats. This implies a much weaker position for Schulz on Jan 21.
The “revolt of dwarfs” in SPD has one more side: it means that Germany’s left-of-center camp is about to collapse. This is why one of the founders of Die Linke (The Left) Gregor Gysi said that if the Social Democrats continue their coalition talks with the CDU-CSU bloc, they will have just 15%, while Die Linke will have just 12%, and this is not enough for stopping the rights. Quite recently, one of the founders of Die Linke Oskar Lafontaine said that the leftists need a new movement, a kind of a people’s party. Some of the German leftists, particularly, Lafontaine and his wife, suggest following the example of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in France: that is, to replace an organized personalized party with an amorphous broad election-oriented movement. The German leftists do not seem to be ready for such drastic changes yet, but they are ready to discuss them with those who may break away from SPD because of the accommodation policy of their leaders.
One of the first steps towards this end was the events commemorating the political assassination of Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg. The leftists seem to be firm in their wish to attract all dissidents from SPD and Green Party. They hope that Die Linke will become the core of Germany’s left-of-center camp after SPD’s “Grand Coalition” fiasco.
As regards Merkel, the “Grand Coalition” talks mean a shift to a more active spending policy in Eurozone.
The political uncertainty in Germany has curbed her ambitious EU reforms. But she and Macron need a specific plan of action by the EU’s Mar summit. 2018 is a crucial year for the EU as 2019 will see Great Britain’s vote on its exit from the union and elections into the European Parliament. Even though the future of the “Grand Coalition” is not clear, Germany is not going to lose its influence on the fiscal policy in the EU. Its partnership with France is considered to be the key to the EU reforms. So, paradoxical as it may seem, the Eurozone reforms have fallen hostage to the “rebellious SPD dwarfs.” The “Grand Coalition” plan is up in the air and any toxic speech during the Jan 21 congress may either approve it or sweep all the stakes off the table.
EADaily’s European Bureau
