The Iranian authorities have qualified the June 7 terrorist attacks in Tehran as a wild but insignificant move. By saying insignificant, they meant that the attacks would have no serious consequences for Iran’s stability. And they were true: the Iranian internal forces showed high competence and cold blood in responding to the attacks. The Iranian MPs continued their work throughout the anti-terror operation. In Europe, they generally stop all activities and evacuate all people as was the case after the Mar 22 terrorist attack near the British parliament.
But still those attacks killed as many as 17 and injured over 50 people and will certainly have geopolitical consequences.
ISIL admitted its responsibility for the attacks. In fact, they broadcast the attacks live.
But many doubt that ISIL is the only one to blame. Iran has lots of geopolitical enemies, who might be interested in such developments. The Iranian authorities dispelled those doubts on June 8 by saying that the executors were Iranian citizens, who had fought for ISIL in Iraq and Syria.
Both terrorist groups (each consisting of 4-5 fighters) were destroyed. But later the Iranian special services said that they had caught one more group who was conspiring one more attack.
Their first confessions have shown that they represented local sleeper cells rather than ISIL. But ISIL is not the only external force that may have influence on Iranian terrorists. The organizers chose a very good moment for the attacks: the time when Iran’s confrontation with Saudi Arabia and Israel had reached its climax. So, either ISIL has very shrewd strategists or the Iranian terrorists were inspired by some other force.
The goal of the organizers was to display Iran’s vulnerability to external threats and their choice of the scenes had certain implications. When a terrorist attack occurs in the Khomeini Mausoleum, it is not an ordinary terrorist attack but a geopolitical challenge. ISIL is not in the form for opposing Iran alone. Then who might be the organizer?
In the region, there are just two powerful intelligences that might be privy to the attacks: Mossad of Israel and GIP of Saudi Arabia. And their key partner is the CIA. For ISIL is just an instrument and a cover. The Iranian executors of the attacks might have been unaware that their boss was not ISIL but the abovementioned forces.
The attacks on Iranian nuclear power engineers that took place before the P5+1 deal are still undisclosed and they too are believed to have been organized by the Israeli-Saudi-American special services.
In Iran, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) believe that the inspirers and organizers of the attacks were the United States, Saudi Arabia and the “Zionist regime” (Israel). And it was the IRGC’s Saberin Special Forces Brigade that neutralized the group in the Iranian parliament. Unlike IRGC commander Hossein Salami, the Supreme National Security Council and the Intelligence Ministry of Iran recommend not to jump to conclusions and point out that the executors were Iranian citizens from several Iranian provinces.
The IRGC’s position is clear as it is the force of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has said that the last terrorist attacks have increased Iran’s hatred towards the governments of the United States and Saudi Arabia. Khamenei did not mention the “Zionist regime” but his commanders and generals did that in his stead.
The attacks have proved that Iran’s geopolitical confrontation with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel is real. And its key force in this confrontation is the IRGC. The attacks have shown that the CIA, Mossad and GIP have an advantage in this game.
Their current tactics are to reveal Iran’s bottlenecks. Until now, Iran has been believed to be immune to any terrorist threats. On June 7, that myth was dispelled. For example, Iran has Khuzestan, a mostly Arab province, where ISIL recruiters and U.S.-Saudi-Israeli spies have lots of opportunities.
The second goal of Iran’s rivals is to prevent it from interfering into the processes concerning the interests of the United States-Saudi Arabia-Israel triumvirate. The Iranians disturb the latter in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. In Iraq, the pro-Iranian Shia force Hashd al-Shaabi captured a vast section of the Iraqi-Syrian border. Pro-Iranian forces were no less active along the Syrian-Jordanian and the Syrian-Lebanese borders.
The Iranian revolutionary guards even began to interfere into the Saudi royal family’s relations with the other dynasties of the region. In Bahrain, there were signs of “Shia spring,” while Qatar was openly flirting with Iran. Something had to be done.
On June 5, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some other Arab nations broke their diplomatic ties with Qatar on suspicion that the Qatari regime sponsors terrorists. One of the reasons was the Qatari Emir’s alleged phone talk with the Iranian President. It is not clear whether there was such a call or not but the fact is that just 48 hours after the diplomatic attack on Qatar, we heard of terrorist attacks in Iran.
Before that, Iran, together with Turkey and Iraq, suggested convoking a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation with a view to settle the inter-Arab crisis. Iran’s rivals were enraged.
The terrorist attacks have forced the Iranians to forget about their initiative and this might have been one of the goals of the attackers.
The other heroes of this confrontation are 31-year-old Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and 36-year-old son-in-law of Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, who both are showing very strong anti-Iranian emotions.
The last appointments in the CIA prove that the United States has very serious plans on Iran. In early June, legendary Michael D’Andrea (also known as the Undertaker, the Dark Prince, Ayatollah Mike and Roger) was appointed as the Head of the CIA’s Iran Operations. “Roger” joined the U.S. foreign intelligence in 1979 – the year of the Iranian Islamic Revolution. Before that he was the Head of the CIS’s Counterterrorism Center, so, he is certain an expert on sleeper cells in Iran and on how to wake them up when needed.
“Roger’s” appointment took place on June 7. And his “success” may serve as a good example for young people in power in the United States and Saudi Arabia. The intermediary result is not good. The policy of sabotage adds fuel to the fire blazing in the Middle East. Iran will certainly parry should the complicity of the Americans, the Israelis and the Saudis in the June 7 incident be proved. And this all may result in a big regional war.
EADaily’s Middle East Bureau