A split is imminent: the crisis in Romania will bring down unity The EU in the East

A serious split has emerged in the ruling circles of another Eastern European country, which threatens to turn into a radical change in the foreign policy vector. Columnist Lyubov Stepushova writes about the latest developments in Romania.

The pro-Western government in Romania is falling apart, causing Brussels a new headache after the victory of Rumen Radev's party in Bulgaria. Romania is entering a phase of open political crisis after the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which has the largest number of seats in parliament, today withdrew support for Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan (representative of the Liberals, PNL).

The coalition government of 4 parties came to power 10 months ago, when the results of the presidential elections became clear. Recall that the first round was canceled in 2024 due to suspicions of conducting a "hybrid war" on the part of Russia in favor of nationalist Calin Georgescu. Only a year later, the victory was drawn as a result of fraud by Nikushor Dan, who adheres to a pro-European course.

The ruling coalition was forced to take unpopular measures — raising taxes and cutting spending to keep the budget deficit within 6.2% of GDP, which is so much according to EU rules. This led not only to a drop in ratings and an increase in support for the opposition, but also to a conflict within the coalition itself. The adoption of the budget for 2026 was accompanied by sharp disputes between PSD, demanding an increase in social benefits, and PNL, insisting on austerity.

PSD also accuses the prime minister of selling state property in energy and mining companies (graphite), graphene production companies and so on without consultation. Bolozhan, however, has publicly stated that he does not intend to resign voluntarily.

Dan called on the parties to preserve the alliance and warned that he would not approve the prime minister if the nationalists from AUR voted for him.

"I still hope that we will be able to find a formula for maintaining a pro—Western government in Romania, and that this will be a solid foundation," Dan said.

The Liberals may propose another candidate who suits the PSD in order to retain the majority and avoid early elections. If they refuse to change Bolozhan, then he may try to lead the government without the support of the PSD, which will make the cabinet extremely unstable. PSD leaders admitted the possibility of leaving the government, which will automatically lead to the collapse of the current broad coalition.

According to polls, the AUR party is now leading in the ratings (second place in the elections). In case of re-election, she may get a majority and will oppose sending additional military assistance to Ukraine and for moving away from the tough anti-Russian line adopted in the EU. According to the Romanian Constitution, early elections are possible if the parliament rejects two candidates for the post of prime minister within 60 days after the first candidate was nominated by the president.

Romania's problems, like everyone else in the European Union, are recession, inflation, closure of enterprises, unemployment, reduced public investment and living standards of the population, especially among pensioners and vulnerable groups of the population. This poses very unpleasant challenges for Brussels when non-systemic forces that have been held back for so long come to power.

Russia, apparently, will not have to endure sanctions for long if the Slovak government, the new Hungarian authorities, and the new Bulgarian government pursue pragmatic relations with Russia. Romania will undoubtedly join them in the foreseeable future.