"The Strait of Hormuz is closed not by Iran, but by shipping itself" — the situation on the 3rd day of the war

"The stream has dried up," the Rybar telegram channel states, describing the situation with shipping in The Strait of Hormuz on the third day of the war.

"The golden quote from the British shipping magazine Lloyd's List "The Strait is closed — not by Iran, but by shipping itself" perfectly confirms our words about the formally open strait, through which no one will go because of the refusal of companies and carriers. The insurance deadline until March 5 has already lost all meaning: shipowners have stopped transportation due to strikes on tankers and oil platforms," Rybar describes the situation.

EADaily adds: The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the main sea arteries of the world, as about 20% of global oil consumption and more than 30% of liquefied natural gas pass through it.

As Rybar notes, the oil market did not collapse overnight: major players remain confident that the inconvenience is temporary. Therefore, everyone has taken a wait-and-see attitude and is waiting for the outcome. The most disappointing forecasts draw figures up to $ 90-95 per barrel of Brent.

During the previous day, only 23 transits were recorded — only 2 of them (!) entered the The Persian Gulf. The remaining 21 rushed to the exit (and even then, it's mostly about small carriers). For comparison, on a typical day, 150 to 200 ships pass through the strait.

For the first time in years, not a single LNG tanker has passed the strait. The last oil tanker passed yesterday. In total, more than 150 tankers with oil or LNG are drifting or parked inside the bay.

An assessment of strategic oil reserves has begun at Asian refineries: in India, Japan and South Korea, according to optimistic estimates, there will be enough reserves for 3 months.

OPEC+ has begun discussing the possibility of an emergency increase in production. This will have almost no effect on Russian incomes for objective reasons. This requires more time and a complete restructuring of the oil and gas production market.

In the UAE, they decided to avoid panic in the markets due to strikes on platforms, refineries and tankers, so local exchanges are forcibly closed both today and tomorrow. It is too early to assess losses. The same applies to Kuwait, where trading is stopped until further notice.

"Despite the relatively shock state of the freight, insurance, oil and gas markets, it is not worth thinking that these are irreversible changes. Of course, the big players will absorb the small ones due to the margin of safety (and, if delayed, the medium ones). But in order for the consequences of a planetary scale to begin to be felt, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz should last for several weeks," comments Rybar, wondering how long the Persians will be able to hold out in this situation.

As reported by EADaily, on the eve of the adviser to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ibrahim Jabari said that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran will strike at any vessel that tries to pass through it. The decision concerns everyone without exception.

"We will burn any vessel that tries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. We will not allow a single drop of oil to leave this region," he said.

Earlier, Tehran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open. However, two small tankers came under attack, and most shipowners do not risk sending ships through the strait. Up to a hundred ships have accumulated on both sides.