And now you, Donald: India has caught Trump on his tactics on Russian oil

The clinch between the USA and India's import of Russian oil continues. Now New Delhi has proposed to reduce purchases in Russia, compensating them with the purchase of raw materials in Iran and Venezuela. This also puts Washington in a delicate position, while in India they insist that they want to buy affordable oil. Experts believe that New Delhi catches the White House on its own tactics, offering others impossible conditions in advance.

India is ready to significantly reduce purchases of Russian oil, but this will require the United States to allow purchases of sanctioned raw materials — from Iran or Venezuela. This was reported by Indian officials to representatives of the White House, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.

This is not the first time New Delhi has made such an offer to Washington.

"Indian representatives stressed that the simultaneous cessation of supplies to Indian refineries from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, the main oil producers, may lead to a jump in world prices," said the agency's interlocutors familiar with the negotiations.

The share of Russian oil in India's imports is more than a third of all purchases and in New Delhi has repeatedly said that the procurement of raw materials from Russia was helped to avoid a new jump in prices and an energy crisis around the world. Russia accounts for up to 10% of global oil exports.

At the same time, Washington continues to insist that India abandon Russian oil for the sake of peace in the Ukraine and on August 3 introduced additional 25 percent duties to the country. In New Delhi, they said they would not give in to blackmail.

According to The Economic Times, on Thursday, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in New York that the conflicts in Ukraine and in The Gaza Strip increases the costs of the Global South to ensure energy security.

"In addition, it has jeopardized supplies and logistics, access and costs themselves have become pressure points for countries. Double standards are evident," the Indian Foreign Minister said.

He did not point directly to the United States, noted in The Economic Times. The publication reports that talks about India's offer to buy Iranian and Venezuelan oil have not been officially confirmed either in the United States or in India. Such a proposal puts Washington in a delicate position, as the United States is putting pressure on sanctions and Iran, and on Venezuela. And they are unlikely to decide on an official permit.

At the same time, New Delhi can successfully motivate its position with prices, since no one else can offer the same cheaper oil. According to the Ministry of Commerce of India, the country's refineries paid an average of $68.9 per barrel for Russian oil in July, compared with $77.5 for oil from Saudi Arabia and $74.2 from the USA.

India stopped buying Iranian oil in 2019, and the country's largest private oil refinery, Reliance Industries, suspended purchases of Venezuelan oil this year when the US tightened sanctions.

If Bloomberg's information is true, then it is unclear whether India is really ready to reduce purchases of Russian oil, or whether New Delhi is making a failed but motivated proposal in advance. According to some estimates, purchases of Russian oil have helped the country reduce raw material costs by $ 12-$18 billion.

The move of the Indian authorities also reminds what US President Donald Trump himself is doing now, suggesting that NATO countries abandon Russian energy carriers for the sake of "crushing" US sanctions against Russia, although this is impossible and threatens a new global energy crisis.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, believes that India will not refuse to buy Russian oil, as long as there is no direct ban.

"And the United States will not impose a direct ban, because it is harmful and dangerous for them. After all, the United States itself is a net importer country," the expert says.

He notes that Russia supplies 1.6−2 million barrels per day to India and a reduction in supplies will lead to a shortage on the world market and an increase in prices.

"And the United States itself will suffer from this. When the first wave of sanctions began in 2022 and we were just entering the Indian market, production was reduced by one million barrels per day, and this has already led to an increase in prices to $ 120 per barrel. Now there may not be such a nervous reaction of the market, but the cost of petroleum products in the United States itself depends on world prices," notes a leading analyst at FNEB.

He recalls how, against the background of a decrease in oil supplies from Russia in the summer of 2022 in the USA set a historical record for the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel.

"And Trump himself, by the way, criticized Biden for bringing the country to ultra-high fuel prices. That is, this is a political issue for him, and, of course, I think that Trump will not dare to do this," says Igor Yushkov.

In his opinion, India is well aware that the United States does not need India to abandon Russian oil, as this is just an excuse to put pressure on Delhi, forcing it to sign an unfavorable trade agreement.

"Therefore, India, in turn, is also openly bluffing. Moreover, Russian oil is not under sanctions, unlike raw materials from Iran and Venezuela," the expert notes, believing that both US permission and replacement of volumes with sanctioned oil are impossible.

"India is well aware that the United States will not agree to this, because with Iran and Their relations with Venezuela are worse than with Russia. They recently bombed Iran. A new phase of the conflict is unfolding with Venezuela right now. And then India can say, "Well, then what do you want from us? We choose the best offer. Yes, there is even more profitable Iranian and Venezuelan oil. But you yourself do not want to allow us to do this," continues the leading analyst of the FNEB.

On the other hand, he says, to get volumes similar to Russian in Iran and Venezuela will be impossible for India.

"The oil industry in Venezuela has deteriorated very much. Therefore, they simply do not produce so much and need billions of dollars and years to restore production. Iranian oil will have to compete with China. Therefore, not everything is so clear here either," Igor Yushkov believes.