Tomorrow, the most powerful magnetic storm in the last two months will occur on Earth. This is reported by the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy and Heliophysical Instrumentation IKI RAS and ISZF SB RAS.
After the outbreak that occurred on August 5, it was assumed that the plasma flow would not touch our planet at all, but recent calculations have shown that a blow to the magnetic field could be quite strong.
"According to the latest calculations, the moment of arrival of a mass ejection to the Earth after a large solar flare of the M4.4 level, which occurred on August 5, will cause significantly stronger geomagnetic consequences than previously expected. Since the plasma cloud after the explosion was ejected not directly to the Earth, but sideways at an angle of about 45 degrees, it was previously assumed that the planet would either not touch at all, or peripheral rarefied regions of ejected solar matter would come to Earth. After the last recalculation, however, the models showed that the planet would be hit by the high—speed core of the cloud, and the impact on the magnetic field could be much stronger," the laboratory said in a statement on its website.
It is assumed that the plasma will approach the Earth tomorrow, August 8, around 7 Moscow time. It is expected that the growth of the Kp geomagnetic index at the time of impact will reach a value of 6, which is the largest since June 13, when a storm of this level was last recorded.
The beginning of the deterioration of the geomagnetic situation is expected on the night of Thursday to Friday, because a few hours before the arrival of the plasma cloud, the planet will enter the zone of action of another large coronal hole, which will lead to a sharp deterioration in the geomagnetic background for almost a week.
"In general, the situation on the Sun is extremely difficult at the moment," the laboratory stressed.
Only yesterday, 18 flares were recorded, and almost all of them were observed near the Sun—Earth line. Therefore, forecasts change radically with each update, and this also applies to tomorrow. It is enough that the trajectory of the ejected substance deviates from the calculated one by only 3-5 degrees so that the storm does not occur, but this rule works in the other direction, the report says. "If the ejection deviates towards the planet, a storm of a higher score may occur. The probability of this is 5%," the laboratory warned.
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