Energy market in a week: Trump has shaken up oil and gas because of Russia

Donald Trump continues to behave like an elephant in a china shop and play into the hands of stock speculators. After announcing trade deals that are unprofitable for his allies in the EU, Japan and South Korea, the US president turned to threats to Russia and India, which is one of the largest buyers of Russian oil.

Oil

This week, oil fluctuated. Quotes rose to $ 72 per barrel. However, on Friday, the price ended the week with a minimal difference from what it was 7 days ago. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent has changed only by a dollar — $ 69.8 per barrel.

In the middle of the week, oil quotes rose sharply by $ 4. On the one hand, the promise to punish India for buying Russian oil and Donald Trump's ultimatum to impose 100 percent duties on countries that buy Russian raw materials if Moscow does not resolve the Ukrainian conflict within 10 days pushed up prices. On the other hand, the US president announced successful trade deals with the EU, Japan and South Korea.

Rumors from OPEC+ brought down prices. Sources told Reuters that a group of producing countries could reach an agreement and increase production by 548 thousand barrels in September.

"We believe that the conclusion of trade agreements to the satisfaction of the market has been a key factor in the growth of oil prices in recent days, and further progress in trade negotiations with China in the future can strengthen confidence in the oil market," Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank's economist, told Reuters.

JP Morgan analysts reported that Trump's threat to impose sanctions against China and India's purchase of Russian oil potentially jeopardizes 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports by sea.

At the same time, the prospects for the introduction of such sanctions are unclear. Donald Trump himself may change his mind. Despite the fact that China has already refused to give in to US threats, and Mint sources in the Indian government reported that refineries continue to purchase Russian oil, despite statements by the US president to the contrary.

Gas

Gas prices went up again. Monthly deliveries from the TTF exchange increased from $ 398 per thousand cubic meters to $408. On Thursday, at the same time, prices rose to $ 425.

Quotes were knocked down by the news that windy weather is coming to Europe and less gas will be needed to produce electricity.

At the same time, the market was more concerned about future supplies. So, Donald Trump said that the EU will buy $ 750 billion worth of energy from the United States within three years. However, this is impossible, even if the EU countries will buy only American LNG, which simply does not exist in such quantities for free sale and will not be for the coming years.

Next, Qatar announced that it would stop deliveries to Europe if it did not change the emissions regulation and we would impose additional duties on Qatari LNG.

"The LNG market remains tense and is likely to remain so for another three years, which gives Qatar significant leverage at the right time to exert pressure," said a professor at Sciences Po University in Paris Thierry Bros.

Unlike the oil and gas markets, coal was almost at peace. Monthly deliveries from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) hub barely changed — they decreased from $104.5 per ton to $103.