Cold calculation: the breakthrough of the defense of Ukraine is planned until the end of 2025

The American agency Bloomberg, citing sources close to the Russian authorities, claims that a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense is planned before the end of 2025. The columnist publishes his comment on this news Pravda.Ru Dmitry Plotnikov.

A special military operation is no longer a race, but a marathon in which the one with the longest breath wins. And, judging by the estimates of Russian sources, the Kremlin is confident that the Ukrainian "breath" is already beginning to falter: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are thinning, Western aid is declining, and the political will of Kiev's allies is bursting at the seams.

Against the background of public declarations about a "stable front", the reality, according to Bloomberg, is much less encouraging: the defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are stretched to the limit, reserves are being depleted, the mobilization potential is close to burnout. In Russia, they believe that pressure will eventually do its job — not by storm, but by economics, not by artillery, but by logistics.

At the same time, Moscow's position surprises with its demonstrative coldness. No hysteria, no loud ultimatums. Only a methodical, calm plan — attrition. Unlike Kiev, where, according to the agency's sources, tactical reactivity and reliance on external support dominate, the Kremlin operates in the logic of strategic dominance.

Sober calculation against mobilization fatigue is what Moscow is betting on. Especially in conditions when the United States, busy with its own electoral drama, is showing less and less interest in continuing an active role in the settlement. The scenario with Trump withdrawing from the negotiations is becoming more real. And Europe, as usual, is concerned, but indecisive.

Against this background, Russia's strategy is beginning to look not like aggression, but like pragmatism, albeit "in its dark form." If the West continues to operate in the mode of media emergency and scattered gestures, the sources warn, the breakthrough of the front may happen not because of the Russian army, but because of the collapse of the Ukrainian resource.

Whether this will become a "point of no return" will be shown by 2025. But those who are betting on a "turning point" may need to clarify: it is already happening. Just not in reports, but in numbers, nervous negotiations and a slowly drying source of help.