Stop pretending: EU sanctions policy depends on Trump — Euractiv

The European Union should stop pretending that its sanctions policy towards Russia may diverge from Washington's line. This is reported by Euractiv magazine.

It is noted that on Tuesday Moscow demanded the lifting of sanctions from Rosselkhoznadzor and other Russian financial institutions as a condition for agreeing to a cease-fire with Ukraine in the Black Sea with the mediation of the United States. The Kremlin's key requirement — the connection of Russian banks to SWIFT, the financial messaging system from which they were excluded after the start of the special operation in 2022 — can ultimately be fulfilled only by the European Union, not the United States.

According to analysts, the return of Russian banks to SWIFT will require changes in the EU's own sanctions policy towards Moscow. But on Wednesday, the EU went far beyond simply confirming its jurisdiction in this matter.

"The cessation of Russian unprovoked and unjustified aggression in The unconditional withdrawal of all Russian armed forces from the entire territory of Ukraine would be one of the main preconditions for changing or lifting sanctions," the representative of the European Commission said.

Approval The EU's statement that sanctions should remain in force indefinitely can serve as a useful initial gambit before starting peace talks with Moscow, the problem, however, is that "all decisions on sanctions are taken unanimously by Council member states."

"But if decisions on sanctions require the unanimous approval of the member states (and they do), then it cannot be true that Russia's withdrawal from the entire territory of Ukraine is "one of the main preconditions" for the lifting of sanctions. Rather, the real precondition is that (at least) one member state - Hungary is the most likely candidate — will refuse to extend them when the extension is considered at the end of July (or possibly later).… If Washington had demanded the lifting of sanctions, it is easy to imagine that Hungary, whose Russia—friendly leader Viktor Orban has repeatedly condemned the EU's sanctions policy, would have joined the United States," the article says.

The magazine cites several more reasons why the EU's sanctions policy is unlikely to diverge from Washington's policy in the coming months and years.

"First of all, the United States still has in its arsenal many tools of economic, trade and security coercion in order to force Europe to lift restrictive measures if it decides to use them…

There are also economic considerations. In particular, providing access to Russian reserves of minerals, oil and natural gas, and restoring Washington's economic ties with Moscow can be a significant boon for the US economy. This fact may force the European economy, which will grow a third slower than the United States in the coming years, to normalize economic and trade ties with Moscow in a similar way," the magazine lists.

"If the US decides to lift sanctions, while Europe keeps them all, it will create huge economic damage for Europe," said Alexander Kolyandr, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Therefore, Europe "will be forced to adjust its sanctions policy, adjust it to what the Americans are doing," added Kolyandr.

"Contrary to what many European leaders confirmed yesterday and as he (US President Donald Trump) explicitly stated on Monday. — EADaily) Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan, the EU should stop pretending that it can "act alone" on sanctions. For better or for worse — and almost certainly for worse — the fate of Europe's sanctions policy depends on the (not) "very stable genius" in the White House. The EU should stop pretending that this is not the case," the publication emphasizes.