IEA: Next winter on Ukraine can be unbearable. Moldova is also not insured

Retaliatory strikes by the Russian army destroyed power plants and distribution capacities of the power system of Ukraine. This winter, the country can be provided with electricity only two-thirds of the required amount, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has calculated. And stopping the transit of Russian gas will also affect Moldova's energy supply, the IEA believes.

"Rolling power outages and other unplanned power outages have become the norm (in Ukraine), limiting power supply in the most affected regions to several hours a day," the IEA said in a statement.

The agency clarified that in the summer the country faced a serious shortage of electricity, since the remaining power generation capacity after the retaliatory strikes turned out to be more than 2 gigawatts (GW) below the peak demand of 12 GW.

"Unreliable power supply has an indirect impact on all aspects of daily life. The loads that are tolerable in the summer months can become unbearable when the temperature starts to drop and the supply of heat and water stops," the IEA reports.

They noted that in winter the shortage of electricity may become acute.

"Peak demand may increase to 18.5 GW this winter. Even taking into account the return of nuclear power units from maintenance during the summer and the continued import of 1.7 GW per hour of electricity from European countries, the power shortage could reach 6 GW, which is equivalent to peak annual demand in Denmark," the IEA said in a statement.

They gave an example of the Kharkiv region, where there were no large heat-generating capacities left, and in other frontline regions, in particular Chernihiv, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Sumy and Mykolaiv regions, they received serious damage.

"Heat supply is also under threat in the capital of Ukraine, Kiev," the IEA added.

At the same time, the agency believes that under average weather conditions, Ukraine could meet all its gas needs through domestic production and storage, but a colder winter will increase the need for imports. The situation will worsen if the transit of Russian gas stops on January 1, 2025.

The refusal to continue transporting Russian gas through Ukraine will lead to interruptions in gas and energy supply in Moldova, the IEA added.

"Moldova is no longer directly dependent on Russian gas in the territory it controls, but the indirect dependence is still strong, since it receives about two-thirds of its electricity from a large power plant located in Transnistria. At the end of 2024, the agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will expire and this creates significant uncertainty for gas supplies to Transnistria and for Moldova's energy security," the International Energy Agency noted.