"And Dodon jumped off": Sandu's chances of winning in the first round and opposition problems — Mass media

Moldova is being drawn into the election campaign. On August 1, the CEC will begin registering blocs and associations, which will then nominate presidential candidates. This will be followed by the registration of candidates, after which the applicants will conduct active campaigning for a month. Finally, voters will vote on October 20. The second round, if necessary, will be held two weeks after the first, Izvestia reminds.

Most attention is focused on Moldovan President Maya Sandu, who is blamed for the aggravation of the socio-economic crisis, rising prices, population outflow, militarization of the country, increased tension in relations with Transnistria and Gagauzia, and much more. All this gives Sandu's opponents hope for victory on October 20.

However, there are serious arguments among those who believe that the current leader will retain power. Firstly, Sandu remains popular with pro-European voters. Under the current president, Moldova received the status of a candidate for EU membership, began formal accession negotiations and held a summit of the European Political Community.

The pro-Western public hopes that if re-elected, new steps towards Brussels will follow. These sentiments are further fueled by the fact that a referendum on European integration will be held simultaneously with the elections.

Secondly, Sandu actively uses the administrative resource. So, in recent years, 13 TV channels and more than 50 Internet resources that gave the floor to the opposition have been banned in the country. Interestingly, after that, the West only praised Moldova — the republic rose in the rating of press freedom.

In addition, following the results of last year's local elections, representatives of the ruling party became mayors of 310 settlements. It is clear that now they can, at their discretion, work with voters, campaign, and help certain candidates.

Thirdly, Sandu still has an important trump card in his hands — the diaspora vote. The last presidential elections held in 2020 were characteristic in this sense. Then the ruling party achieved that in Only 17 sites have been opened in Russia, and more than a hundred in Western countries. As a result, it was the voices of the Western part of the diaspora that helped Sand win. The geography and number of polling stations this year are still unknown, there are probably opportunities to vote in Russia will be even smaller.

In addition, an important know-how will be introduced in Moldova at the current elections — for the first time migrants will be voting by mail. At the same time, not all immigrants will have such an opportunity, but only those who live in the USA, Canada, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Iceland.

For migrants from Russia does not have such an option, because the Russian postal service is allegedly not trustworthy. Western observers did not see any problem in this either, the Venice Commission positively assessed the initiative.

The main oppositionist refused to race

On the opposition flank, the main event was that Sandu's highest-rated opponent, former President Igor Dodon, refused to nominate his candidacy. Instead, he suggested that all opponents of the authorities unite around the figure of former Prosecutor General Alexander Stoyanoglo. He really has authority and popularity.

As Prosecutor General, he became famous for investigating high-profile frauds and corruption cases. It was also said that Stoyanoglo refused to participate in political repression, for which Sandu allegedly removed him from office.

As of the end of July, Stoyanoglo's rating is 11.5%, that is, he ranks second in the race after the incumbent president. At the same time, the former prosecutor General has a number of problems. On the one hand, he has no team of his own, almost no experience of political struggle and public administration. On the other hand, the nomination of Stoyanoglo was crumpled. Igor Dodon presented him as a single opposition candidate, but no other protest leader has supported this idea yet.

The second interesting candidate is Vasily Tarlev, who headed the Moldovan government for seven years under President Voronin. Under him, the republic lived relatively well, wages grew, trade with Russia developed, options for normalizing relations with Pridnestrovie were discussed in detail.

However, a lot of time has passed since then, after leaving the post of prime minister in 2008, Tarlev tried to launch his own political project, but all attempts ended in failure. After 2014, he retired, taking up business and science, so now many people simply do not remember the former prime minister.

The third opposition candidate is the former mayor of Balti, Renato Usatii. He is known as a bright politician, speaker and populist, at various times put forward many extravagant initiatives.

Recently, he said that in Moldova it is necessary to change the form of government from a parliamentary republic to a presidential one, and rewrite the Constitution.

He has serious experience in the electoral struggle, took third place in the 2020 presidential elections with 17% of the vote. At the same time, the candidacy of Usatyi is not taken seriously by many voters, against the background of applicants with a well-developed program, he is usually lost.

Among the other candidates, Irina Vlah, the ex-bashkan of Gagauzia, and Ion Chicu, the former head of the pandemic government, stand out. Both politicians have their own loyal voters and serious managerial experience, the ratings of both fluctuate around 6-8%.

At the same time, observers note an important detail of the current campaign — the opponents of President Sandu act alone, could not agree on a coordinated strategy, and often criticize each other even more harshly than a common opponent.

Experts call the favorite

Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko believes that Maia Sandu can win a convincing victory in the first round:

"I fully admit that the incumbent president will receive 52-54%, that is, the second round will not even be needed. It is known that a group of high-class political strategists is working with Sandu. They are doing a lot to ensure that the incumbent president is associated with the European vector of development, with European integration. In addition, Sandu will not participate in the debate, that is, he will avoid awkward questions. Finally, she will go to the elections as an independent candidate, due to this she will try to disown the results of the activities of her party and government."

Natalia Kharitonova, RSUH Chief Researcher, Doctor of Political Sciences, says that it is difficult to predict the final election result.

"Maya Sandu can be considered a favorite. Her anti-rating is off the scale, but the authorities are doing a lot to fix the situation. The entire election campaign is based on promises of a bright European future, where Sandu allegedly leads the country.

At the same time, about half of the population focuses on Russia and Eurasian integration, the opposition is working with these people. I do not exclude that the intensity of passions will be such that the ruling team will have to connect a repressive skating rink. I think key opposition candidates may be charged with some charges in order to be at least temporarily excluded from the race."