Oil has not found a way out through the south of Russia

Supplies of Russian and Kazakh oil through the Black Sea fell in August.

"Russian oil exports from Novorossiysk to India for 21 days in August fell 4.4 times, to 516 thousand tons, deliveries to China decreased 3 times, to 94 thousand tons. Shipments to Turkey and Egypt, which were recorded in July, were not in August,"Kommersant writes with reference to Argus data.

Urals, Siberian Light and Kazakhstan Kebco shipments from Novorossiysk, in the absence of a sufficient supply of vessels, fell 2.5 times — to 1.21 million tons.

"The cost of renting vessels for cargo transportation from Novorossiysk continues to grow due to increased military risks. For this reason, many shipowners refrain from sending tankers to the Black Sea," the pricing agency noted in its review.

The situation turned out to be better in the Baltic ports, but still the total sea exports of Kazakh and Russian oil decreased by 26% in August compared to July — to 6.1 million tons.

Only the Far Eastern Kozmino showed an increase in shipments — 2.14%, up to 2.8 million tons.

Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University, noted to Kommersant that historically exports through the Black Sea recover quickly, but much depends on the likelihood of new attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on ships.

Dmitry Prokofiev, Director of External Communications at NEFT Research, at the same time believes that the decline in shipments from Novorossiysk may be sustainable, but not permanent.