Energy market for the week: gas in Europe is already at $ 700, analysts are waiting for $ 1200

The Iranian war is accelerating. USA and Iran is exchanging blows and the heat is only growing. And if oil has not yet jumped to $ 100 per barrel, then the cost of gas in Europe has already exceeded $ 700 per thousand cubic meters. Analysts fear that the price may double again in the winter, as Europe does not have time to restore stocks, and Russian supplies should be reduced according to the EU plan next year.

Oil

US attacks and Iran's retaliatory strikes are only increasing and markets are beginning to fear deja vu. From Friday to Friday, the cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent rose from $ 75.7 per barrel to $ 87.5.

It is not surprising, since Iran has threatened to stop the passage through the Red Sea, where the Houthis can block it.

"Given that a significant part of Saudi Arabia's exports are being redirected to the port of Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, any such development poses a real threat," Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Reuters.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said at a Council on Foreign Relations event in Washington believes that it is worth worrying if the situation does not improve in the next few weeks.

Gas

Gas prices in Europe have been rising for the third week in a row and this time they made a breakthrough. During the week, deliveries for a month in advance from the Dutch TTF exchange went up from $ 579 to $ 704 per thousand cubic meters. This is the level of March, when the Iranian war was in full swing.

It's like she's gone now. But it kind of is. The United States is hitting military targets in Iran. Tehran responds to US bases in In the Persian Gulf and for the first time attacked a power plant and a desalination plant in Kuwait, where the temperature outside the window exceeds 50 degrees Celsius.

It is obvious that the Strait of Hormuz is standing, and with it the EU plans to correct low gas reserves disappear after the restoration of navigation in the strait, which provides 20% of LNG supplies in the world.

In this situation, LNG supplies to the EU are only declining, as Asia and Egypt are taking away American LNG from EU countries. Yamal LNG also turned to China, which almost all went to EU countries this year.

The jump in prices in Europe at the same time allowed only to catch up with the cost of LNG in Northeast Asia. Here, gas for September delivery is traded at $ 706.

Analysts told the specialized publication Montel that in the event of a severe winter, gas prices in Europe could double compared to the current level and exceed $ 1,200 per thousand cubic meters. After all, from next year the European Union will begin to completely abandon gas from Russia, which is still a significant supplier, is the third largest this year.

Coal prices were not so feverish. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) rose in price over the week from $118 per ton to $119.8.