Finnish is becoming the basic scenario for the end of the war for Ukraine — JPMorgan

The most likely scenario of the end of the war for Ukraine is the Finnish one. This is stated in the forecast of the JPMorgan Center for Geopolitics.

Analysts of the largest American investment bank believe that the conflict will end with negotiations, as a result of which Ukraine will lose part of the territories, but at the same time retain sovereignty, the army — possibly with restrictions — democratic institutions and a course towards European integration. Thus, Ukraine is waiting for a path similar to that of Finland: after the war with the Soviet Union, it lost about 10% of its territory, but retained a democratic system, a market economy and ties with the West, avoiding direct confrontation with the USSR.

It is noted that there are, however, a number of factors that can change this scenario, and many of them are not in favor of Ukraine. First of all, we are talking about the war in Iran, which, on the one hand, depletes Western arsenals of weapons, and on the other hand, increases demand and prices for Russian energy carriers. In addition, a significant risk for Ukraine is the possibility of increasing the pressure of US President Donald Trump on Kiev in order to achieve the acceptance of the conditions agreed by Washington and Moscow to end the conflict.

A year ago, JPMorgan analysts considered the "Georgian scenario" to be the basic option for Ukraine.

As reported by EADaily, the largest US investment bank JPMorgan Chase published forecasts for the completion of the special operation on Ukraine, highlighting four main scenarios of the outcome of the armed conflict.

It followed from the report of the financial institution that the "Georgian" scenario is considered as the most realistic, the probability of which is estimated at 50%.