NDD pulled oil and gas revenues of Russia

In March, Russia's oil and gas revenues were the highest since the beginning of the year. However, they were pulled out by calendar payments of additional income tax (NDT). Otherwise, they would have been among the lowest. The strengthening of the ruble, the decline in world prices and the reduction in exports due to sanctions have led to one of the lowest payments for the mineral extraction tax (MET) on oil.

In March 2025, Russia's oil and gas revenues amounted to 1 trillion 81 billion rubles. This is evidenced by the data of the Ministry of Finance. This is 17% lower than last year, but the largest amount of oil and gas revenues this year.

This situation is explained by the fact that in March a calendar payment is made on the personal income tax, which amounted to 487.1 billion rubles. At the same time, the mineral extraction tax on oil fell to 776.5 billion rubles. Compared to January and February, the decrease was almost 25%.

"The negative adjustment is mainly due to a decrease in oil and gas condensate production volumes compared to forecast values and a clarification of the amount of tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production by the end of 2024," the Ministry of Finance said in a statement, which is why in March the total deviation of actually received oil and gas revenues from the expected monthly volume of oil and gas revenues amounted to 65.6 billion rubles.

Obviously, the revenues were primarily affected by the export of Russian oil. It declined slightly due to the new US sanctions, at the same time the ruble continued to strengthen (an average of 86 rubles per US dollar in March, according to the Central Bank), and world oil prices decreased, which led to the fact that the Russian Urals reached the limit of the "Big Seven" and the EU at $ 60 per barrel.

The MET for gas also continues to decline. If in January it amounted to 143.8 billion rubles, then in March — 77.4 billion rubles. Such a drastic change is due to the fact that after January Gazprom stopped paying the increased mineral extraction tax (an additional 50 billion rubles per month). Seasonality also affects demand and export prices.

The payments on the damper that refineries receive when domestic prices are lower than export ones amounted to 100 billion rubles in March.

Perhaps in April, the income from mineral extraction tax on oil will increase somewhat. Oil prices are not rising, but exports are recovering — the place of the sanctioned tankers of Sovcomflot and companies belonging to the grey fleet is occupied by others, including Greek shipowners.

"While no improvements are expected in this direction, the US tariff policy has led to panic in the commodity markets, which may be offset by a weaker ruble," says independent industrial expert Maxim Shaposhnikov at the same time.

As EADaily reported, oil and gas revenues of 10.9 trillion rubles were included in the budget for this year , with an average annual oil export price of $ 69.7 per barrel and an average annual dollar exchange rate of 96.5 rubles. Finam analyst Alexander Potavin noted to EADaily that the current ruble exchange rate and the cost of Russian oil are not a very pleasant combination for the government, whose expenses increased very much at the beginning of the year.

"In this case, a weaker ruble exchange rate can balance oil and gas revenues," the analyst said.