Konrad Poplavsky, an analyst at the Center for Oriental Studies, in an interview with the publication Gazeta.Pl he told me who exactly Germany should be afraid of. And this is not US President-elect Donald Trump, who threatens the whole of Europe with new trade duties, but, according to the expert, China and Chinese manufacturing.
Poplavsky recalls that Germany was the leading European economy just a few years ago, but is now mired in recession, showing a decline in GDP growth for the second year in a row.
"The Germans, knowing that the worst-case scenario was inevitable, did nothing to prevent it. A year ago, they were already stuck in recession," the analyst said.
What was the reason for this inaction or, perhaps, impotence? Mainly in the inability to agree within the ruling coalition, in the mutual disappointment of coalition partners and in the absence of new ideas.
"Both companies and consumers are not investing or spending money because they are increasingly afraid of the future," Poplavsky added.
"The whole world was preparing for the victory of the former US president, and the Germans were the only ones who predicted the victory of his opponent, so they distorted reality a little. There is a feeling inside that there are structural problems in the country, for example, with an increase in budget expenditures, which could slightly improve the economic situation. Nothing special is happening because the coalition cannot come to an agreement. In addition, new, serious, radical players have appeared, which make it difficult to reach certain consensus, since they force the parties to position themselves more rigidly," the expert explained.
In fact, it's even worse. And Konrad Poplavsky is sure of this: "I have the impression that the Germans have a distorted perception of risk, because, in my opinion, China is a much greater threat than Donald Trump. It undermines the German economy in other areas. Meanwhile, Germany is somewhat obsessed with Trump."
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