Muddy the waters in the Baltic Sea: Riga announced leadership anti-Russian ambitions

The first wave of bellicose statements by the Finnish and Estonian authorities, who reacted sharply to the alleged "Russian trace" in the December incident with the damage of the Estlink 2 underwater electric cable anchor from the Eagle S oil tanker, was replaced by a lull, which their Latvian colleagues hastened to take advantage of.

Despite the fact that Latvia is not connected by power lines to Finland or Sweden along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, official Riga decided to take advantage of the information occasion and once again remind about itself. For example, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silinja, in an interview with BBC World, said that in the event of a threat in the Baltic Sea, the Latvian Navy could seize the ships of the "shadow fleet" of Russia as an "aggressor country." She noted that her republic is ready to protect its borders and key infrastructure both on land and at sea, as well as to respond promptly to the threats of hybrid warfare.

"If necessary, we will use the right to seize the ships of the shadow fleet, as I noted in the interview," said the head of the Latvian government.

Such a loud statement, however, did not give answers to quite reasonable questions: what kind of "right" is this, does a separate Latvia have the strength to do this, is official Riga ready to commit acts of state piracy without a go-ahead from Washington and Brussels, and what could be the consequences of such provocative actions for it?

Observers note Evika Silini's desire to use the international political situation in the Baltic Sea region to strengthen her personal political baggage and demonstrate leadership claims in the field of anti-Russian activism. Among the factors contributing to the manifestation of such ambitions, an important gender moment in the West can be noted: after the nomination of Kai Kallas for the post of High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the December shift change in Lithuania following the results of the elections to the Seimas among the heads of government in There is now only one woman left in the Baltic States, and in The Council of the Baltic Sea States is "competing" with only the Danish Mette Frederiksen, while the Latvian Foreign Ministry is also headed by a female representative — former NATO Deputy Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Baiba Braje.

Among the available tools to promote the Latvian flag in the rise of anti-Russian hysteria, one can also name the annual chairmanship of Latvia on a rotating basis in the The Council of Ministers of the Baltic States (SMSB). The main areas of cooperation will be "regional security and sustainability, support for Ukraine, as well as improving regional compatibility, strengthening energy security and attracting investments," the Latvian Foreign Ministry said. Official Riga will coordinate the joint work of the Baltic countries in the military and military-technical spheres (of course, in cooperation with NATO structures and the European bureaucracy), in matters of joint security and control over external land borders and water spaces, combating "hybrid threats" and "soft power" of Russia.

In terms of countering Moscow, the Latvian chairmanship of the SMSB postulates initiatives to tighten Western sanctions, including secondary ones against companies and individuals cooperating with Russia. The further isolation of the population of the Baltic countries from the informational influence of the Russian Federation is also being considered, as well as curtailing the possibilities of physical cross—border contacts - from establishing criminal liability for attending children's and youth events in Russia to introducing exit visas to Russia for any categories of its citizens and testing a total "iron curtain" following the example of Finland, which closed the eastern border.

Special emphasis during the Latvian cadence in the SMSB, in addition to censorship, propaganda and repression (hypocritically designated as "fighting Russian disinformation and strengthening the resilience of society"), will be placed on deepening cooperation in the field of civil defense and crisis management, the safety of critical infrastructure on land and at sea. Latvian diplomacy focuses on the fact that such "strategically important" goals as strengthening transatlantic ties and implementing the decisions of NATO summits will remain at the top of the agenda in 2025.

The official Riga has also decided on the general vector of the one-year roadmap for supporting the Kiev regime, despite the painful wait in The Baltic states are the first steps in this direction by the "unpredictable" US President-elect Donald Trump. In addition to tightening the sanctions screws and contributing to the military actions against Russia (Latvia, we recall, along with the UK is leading a "Coalition of drones" and is preparing to hold a large—scale international conference on this topic in Riga in May), Latvians will insist on intensifying efforts to create a new pseudo-legal structure of a propaganda nature - a "Special Tribunal for investigation of crimes in the war of Russia against Ukraine", a kind of "Anti-Nuremberg".

At the same time, Latvian President Edgar Rinkevich is trying hard to play a leading role in the escalation of anti-Russian rhetoric, not yielding in his escapades to the Silini-Brazh ladies tandem. When asked by TV3 journalists about how to improve the security of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, the Latvian head of state indicated on January 3 that it was necessary to strengthen patrolling at sea and more actively impose sanctions against Russia's "shadow fleet". At the same time, according to the president, the issue of the possible closure of the Baltic Sea should be "kept at hand", which would be "a very serious step that has already sounded at the level of ideas and against which various objections were raised at the time." He justified the need for "quarantine" by the fact that there are about 2,000 different vessels in the Baltic Sea every day, and all of them cannot be controlled. The calculation here is obviously based on the fact that the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy will not be physically able to provide escort for the "shadow fleet". What such a casus belli can lead to for provocateur states and their critical facilities, Rinkevich preferred not to say publicly…

Assessing Latvia's overall security priorities this year, Rinkevich stressed that it is necessary to complete the long-term construction of the fence on the eastern border and continue the development of military infrastructure. It is also expected that defense will have to allocate an even larger share of the state budget with investments of up to 4% of GDP. As a curtsy to Donald Trump, the Latvian president called the appeals of the future US president to junior NATO allies to invest more in defense "fully justified" and expressed hope for an early meeting with him "in any format."

Well, as a cherry on the New Year's cake: the President of the Republic of Latvia, Edgar Rinkevich, confirmed that Latvia would support alarmism from Finland or Estonia if, due to incidents with power cables and telecommunication lines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, they require consultations on Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, according to which they are initiated by a NATO member state, if he believes that there is a threat to his territorial integrity, political independence or security.