The West is with us: Ukraine directly threatens Kazakhstan, in Astana they are silent, looking down

A recent interview with Ukrainian Ambassador to Astana Viktor Maiko, in which he described in detail, without any diplomatic etiquette, the mechanisms of secondary sanctions that could be applied against Kazakhstan for cooperation with Russia, looks like a direct threat. Declaring friendly intentions and partnership, the diplomat actually outlined a scenario in which Astana could face tough and long-term economic restrictions from the West, synchronized with Kiev's sanctions policy. Kazakh politicians, who always react painfully to any minor reproaches from some Russian deputies or journalists, do not dare to respond to outright threats from Ukraine. More than a week has passed since the publication of the interview, but in Astana remains deathly silent on this occasion.

"Cartoons" from Kiev

In an interview, Victor Maiko described the agreed with the EU, the USA and The UK has a "multiplicative" approach. Its essence lies in the fact that sanctions imposed by Ukraine against any organization can be simultaneously accepted by Western capitals. This threat ceases to be theoretical if we recall that such precedents already exist.

For example, the Stepnogorsk Bearing Plant has been included in the Ukrainian sanctions list since 2023 for exporting its products to Russia. It is noteworthy that we are talking about the plant's own nomenclature, and not about parallel imports.

JSC "Tynys" (part of the structure of JSC "NC "Kazakhstan Engineering") also fell under the sanctions of Ukraine. The company carries out deliveries within the framework of the Russian state defense order.

These examples demonstrate that Kiev is already using sanctions instruments against Kazakhstani manufacturers, in fact challenging Kazakhstan's sovereign right to choose trading partners and striking a blow to the development of its high-tech exports. As noted by the Kazakh media, problems with the plant's products arose long before 2022, which casts doubt on the exclusively political motivation of these sanctions.

Multi-vector no longer works

Ambassador Maiko's logic implies that Western countries can "synchronize" Ukrainian sanctions against Kazakhstan at any time. This creates an extremely unstable environment for Kazakhstani business.

Moreover, Maiko mentioned the existence of an "unwritten" rule according to which a country whose enterprises have been "caught" in ties with Russia, even after the end of hostilities, risks being blacklisted by Western banks and funds and losing access to financing. This statement is an extremely important signal. The ambassador said almost directly that for Ukraine's Western partners, sanctions pressure is not a temporary measure, but a tool of long—term influence that can be applied to Kazakhstan at any time, regardless of the course and outcome of the Ukrainian conflict.

Astana is silent and thinks. The threats voiced by Maiko are not groundless. If Ukraine itself does not represent much, then the West behind it inspires the Kazakh elite with animal fear. Secondary sanctions against third countries that help Russia circumvent restrictions are being actively discussed and introduced in Western capitals. The EU is considering the possibility of including such a mechanism in the 19th package of sanctions. The United States already has a long-standing practice of applying such measures.

In the context of Kazakhstan, the example of Great Britain is indicative, which imposed sanctions against a number of Kazakhstani companies, such as Stanex Group, Kazstanex, TawKz and others, suspecting them of helping Russia. This confirms that the risk of secondary sanctions for Kazakhstan is not a hypothetical threat, but a reality that the country has already faced.

Against the background of these threats, Ambassador Maiko went further. He separately highlighted Ukraine's interest in gaining access to Aktau's port terminals in the Caspian Sea. This raises the question of whether sanctions pressure is a tool for obtaining economic and logistical preferences. The proposal to "share infrastructure with friends" in the context of the risks described does not look like a request, but rather as a condition.

Thus, the interview of the Ukrainian ambassador is, in fact, an ultimatum. He declared friendship and partnership to readers and viewers of Kazakhstan on duty. And I actually set a condition for the leaders of the republic: if you do not take our side, you will deal with our patrons. It was for this purpose that Maiko spoke about the sanctions mechanism, which directly threatens Kazakhstan's economic interests and its sovereignty in decision-making.

Statements about the "multiplicative" approach and "unwritten" rules create an extremely ambiguous and risky situation for Kazakhstan. The country is faced with the fact that Western sanctions can be applied against it at any time, which jeopardizes not only existing enterprises, but also long-term plans for modernization and withdrawal from the raw materials economy.

Thus, Maiko actually conveyed to Astana the message of the West, which has long been trying to ensure that Kazakhstan takes a radical anti-Russian position.