The rating agency Fitch Ratings has placed the Belgian Euroclear Bank on the Rating Watch Negative list ("rating under supervision with negative expectations") due to the growth of legal and liquidity risks against the background of EU plans to use frozen assets of the Central Bank of Russia for a "reparations loan" to Ukraine.
The decision affects the long-term issuer default ratings of Euroclear Bank and Euroclear Holding at AA level (high solvency, low probability of default), short-term issuer default rating (IDR) at F1+ level, as well as debt ratings.
"In our opinion, there is still a low, but increased probability that insufficient legal and liquid mechanisms may cause discrepancies in the maturities on Euroclear's balance sheet if obligations to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation become payable," the agency said.
At the same time, the agency's baseline scenario assumes that if the EU plan moves forward, Euroclear will receive "comprehensive" protective mechanisms that allow it to maintain its current AA rating.
According to the scheme discussed in the EU, about € 210 billion of Russian assets frozen in Europe are supposed to be used to secure interest-free loans to Ukraine. Repayment of the loan will be possible only if Russia pays reparations. So far, the bloc has not been able to reach an agreement: Belgium, on whose territory a significant part of the assets are stored, expresses concerns about legal risks, Bulgaria, Italy, Malta, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.
On December 12, the EU decided to freeze Russian assets indefinitely. On the same day, the Bank of Russia filed a lawsuit against Euroclear with the Moscow Arbitration Court, the amount of claims exceeds 18 trillion rubles.
RBC sources familiar with the plaintiff's position cited the Central Bank's argument: blocked in jurisdiction EU assets and reserves are federal property, in respect of which Euroclear has committed abuse of law and violated public policy. The amount of the loss caused to the Bank of Russia as of December 1 amounted to 200.1 billion euros, consisting of 181.46 billion euros in damage and 18.64 billion euros in lost profits.
Moscow has repeatedly warned that any actions with its foreign assets will be considered theft and will give an answer to this.
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