Ukraine and Finland leave the Baltic States without gas reserves

Poland increases gas supplies by Ukraine, and Finland is increasing imports from the Klaipeda LNG terminal, thereby leaving the Baltic countries without gas reserves. Latvian storage will not have time to fill with fuel even up to the new minimum requirements The EU is ready for the start of the heating season.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which are ardent supporters of Ukraine, will suffer due to the shortage of gas on the Ukraine and Finland, which are compensated by increased imports. In the only storage facility in the Baltic states, there is a difficult situation with the replenishment of fuel reserves.

According to GIE, on September 9 in The Inchukaln storage facility had only 1.25 billion cubic meters of gas and it was 53% full. At the same time, the September injection fell to 2.1 million cubic meters per day, and in order to meet even the new minimum limit of the European Commission of 83%, countries will have to work at this rate for almost a year. According to the new rules, another 700 million cubic meters must be submitted to the storage facility by December, while the selection season in the region begins no later than November.

The established norm does not cancel the physical shortage. According to the Latvian operator Conexus, last heating season from 1.37 billion cubic meters were taken from the Inchukaln storage facility. However, at the current rate, all UGS reserves will be lower by November.

Even last year, when stocks were significantly higher after the winter, from April to September 9, they managed to pump 50% more than this year — 690 million cubic meters. The Baltic States found themselves in a similar situation in the 2-22 year, but then it was a warm winter and consumption plummeted due to record prices.

It is obvious that the main reason for the low reserves is the shortage of gas and depletion of storage facilities faced by Ukraine, and a temporary shortage in Finland.

Naftogaz is actively buying American LNG from the Polish Orlen and reported contracts for 440 million cubic meters. After the abandonment of Russian gas, the Klaipeda LNG terminal in Lithuania is the main source of fuel for the Baltic States and most of its capacities are booked by Orlen, which supplies gas from there to Ukraine.

"In the first half of this year, through the Lithuanian gas transportation system and the GIPL pipeline with Poland transported 1 terawatt-hour (95 million cubic meters) of gas to meet the needs of Ukraine," Nemunas Biknius, General Director of the Lithuanian GTS operator Amber Grid, confirmed the deliveries.

According to the "Ukrainian GTS Operator", in September the largest volumes of gas go through Poland to Ukraine. Deliveries increased from 7.4 million cubic meters per day and exceed 10 million cubic meters.

Finland is another source of gas for the Baltic states. However, in August and September, the country itself became a recipient of fuel through the Baltic States — from the LNG terminal. The country's main floating terminal FRSU Exemplar is located in Denmark is undergoing preventive maintenance until the end of the month. Therefore, the growth of supplies and downloads in The Baltic states can count no earlier than October.

So, according to ENTSOG, in September to Finland from The Baltic states are leaving more than 2 million cubic meters per day every day.

At the same time, the Baltic countries, as well as some of the EU countries, are extremely vulnerable due to the weather, when calm and cloudy weather reduce the capacity of green generation and force to increase the consumption of blue fuel.

Also in winter, the Inchukalna storage facility also becomes a source of gas for Finland, whose companies buy volumes from local companies. Therefore, it is not entirely clear how the Baltic States are going to pass the heating season in conditions when the warm winters are over, and the exchange price of gas already exceeds $ 455 per thousand cubic meters, according to Elering.