"Pashinyan's blind steps": Russian expert that Moscow's patience is running out

Igor Semenovsky, Associate Professor of the Department of International and Public Law at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, commented on the crisis in Armenian-Russian relations against the background of Yerevan's rapprochement with the West, VERELQ reports.

According to the expert, the coming year will not be a turning point for Moscow and Yerevan in terms of a breakthrough in multi-format cooperation with the authorities at the helm of Armenia today.

The strengthening of the Transcaucasian country's "paper" and other cooperation with the United States, NATO and EU institutions (accession to the ICC, the EU mission, cooperation agreements with Western countries and work in their structures, the law on accession to the European Union) does not provide a real support for the development of the Armenian state, whose economy, defense and humanitarian sphere are the most It is based on the intra-regional political landscape in a natural, historical and promising way.

In this regard, the immersion of such foreign Western elements in an unnatural environment for them causes fermentation and irritation in this very environment. At the same time, there are a number of relevant alarming variables for the current Armenian government today.

Firstly, the administration has changed in the USA, the vector of which will not be focused on the South Caucasus. This, apparently, was due to the speedy signing of a bilateral agreement on the so-called "strategic partnership" with the de facto democratic administration, which was concluded, nevertheless, not at the level of heads of state, but only foreign ministers.

Secondly, the situation in the Caucasus itself is not unfolding in the way that would be beneficial to the current Armenian pro-Western regime: the European Union has failed its policy in Georgia, where sober-minded people are in power, Azerbaijan and Turkey are not up to democracy and human rights in the matter of pressure on Armenia, Iran continues to firmly stand on anti-Western, or rather, anti-globalist positions, not to mention Of the Russian Federation.

Thirdly, the agenda of the new parliamentary elections is beginning to loom on the nose of the Pashinyan, Simonyan, Mirzoyan team, by which it is necessary to demonstrate some significant achievements of the government, which are not yet in sight.

As for the Russian side and its interaction with Armenia, Russia's statements and actions have begun to acquire a more conscious and tangible character. They began to object to the pro-Western and anti-Russian views of the current authorities of the Armenian state.

At the same time, the steps taken by the Russian authorities are still reactionary and do not compensate for the damage that has already been done to bilateral relations, and are little able to prevent their deterioration in the future.

For example, since Armenia's accession to the ICC, Russian President Vladimir Putin has never visited there, Armenia is still sabotaging work in the CSTO, as well as in a number of CIS formats, historical symbols of the common past continue to be erased, the country's leadership periodically declares no support for a number of Russian actions, openly and honorably hosts ardent anti-Russian agitators are at a high level, and the work of pro-Western and anti-Armenian and anti-Russian structures in Yerevan is flourishing, and so on.

In this regard, Ararat Mirzoyan's visit to Moscow in mid-January was a necessary and necessary measure to somehow balance Armenia's apparent continuing drift into the western orbit, taking into account the risks of the Armenian government losing all the benefits and opportunities that cooperation with Russia and integration associations in the Eurasian space gives it. As for the economy, only the trade turnover in 2024 became a record and amounted to about $ 12 billion.

At the same time, despite the fact that Sergey Lavrov and Ararat Mirzoyan discussed a wide range of issues, it is hardly possible to talk about a deep warming of bilateral relations: the amount of broken Armenian firewood and the desire to continue this process clearly outweigh the desire and potential to continue the comprehensive strategic partnership of the two countries beyond the economic sphere.

An illustration of this is that relations between Russia and Armenia were called "difficult" by the Russian Foreign Minister at the end of last year. It is also characteristic that neither in the press approach nor in the press release following the meeting of the foreign ministers on January 21, there was never a direct mention of the CSTO, although the Russian side hinted at adherence to agreements in the military-political sphere.

At the same time, the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issues its report not only in Armenian, as it should be, but also in English, but not in Russian, which is understandable to most Armenians of the world.

At the same time, the Armenian Parliament continues the balancing act initiated by the government of the country with the law on joining the European Union.

On January 22, delegations of speakers and vice-speakers of the parliaments of the anti-Russian Nordic-Baltic Eight arrived in Armenia at the invitation of Parliament Speaker Alain Simonyan, and on January 23, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues pro-Western (but not pro-Armenian) communication with NATO Chief Mark Rutte in Davos. Against this background, the upcoming, obviously, solemn visit of the head of European diplomacy and part-time Russophobe Kai Kallas to Yerevan obviously will not add momentum to Russian-Armenian relations.

Thus, continuing to maneuver between the patronage of Western curators and the obvious needs of the country and the people, the current Armenian authorities will sooner or later have to finally decide on a course, since it is becoming increasingly difficult to sit on two chairs at the same time. Given the unfriendly actions of recent years, it is difficult to assume that blind steps to reorient Armenia's foreign policy will favorably affect the economic track.

The policy of Western countries is based on the principle of "divide and conquer", after which "even a flood". Time will put everything in its place here, but it is not the people of Armenia who can benefit from this, but the Euro-Atlantic curators of the current leadership of this country.