Record gas production is no longer expected in Norway: 2024 was the last

The Norwegian regulator reported record gas production and exports. At the same time, according to his forecast, in the coming years, Europe's main supplier will reduce supplies.

In 2024, record gas production and exports were recorded in Norway. According to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, gas sales amounted to 124 billion cubic meters last year. Whereas in 2023 it dropped to 116 billion cubic meters due to long preventive repairs and delays.

"Since the transportation of gas from Russia through Ukraine ended at the end of the year, gas from Norway has become even more important," said the Director General of the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, Torgeir Sturdal.

The previous record was set in 2022 at 122.8 billion cubic meters.

Due to sanctions and counter-sanctions, Gazprom sharply reduced gas supplies to Europe in 2022 and Norway has become the main gas supplier to Europe since 2023.

The 2024 record, however, will be the last. At least, such a forecast is made in the Norwegian Offshore Directorate itself. They expect that in 2025 production will decrease to 120 billion cubic meters, and in 2029 it will drop to 111 billion cubic meters.

"The directorate expects that the total production volume will decrease in the late 2020s. To slow down this decline, exploration work should be carried out near infrastructure and in more border areas. Additional investments in deposits, exploration and infrastructure are needed. The lack of investment will lead to a rapid curtailment of activities," the Norwegian regulator reports.

In 2027, the European Union plans to completely abandon Russian gas. However, it is not yet clear whether this will succeed. Brussels is counting on the launch of numerous new LNG projects in the United States and Qatar. At the same time, in 2024, the total supply of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia's exports to Europe (excluding Moldova) amounted to 51 billion cubic meters. If Norway's share in exports to the EU is estimated at 31%, then Russian supplies account for 20%. According to ENTSOG, Ukrainian transit accounted for 15.5 billion cubic meters in 2024, including 2 billion cubic meters for Moldova.