APU are hitting oil depots in a heap: what is the threat

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively attacking Russian oil depots and have chosen a new tactic — drones fly to the same object in waves. Over the past ten days, drones have fallen on three oil depots, where fires started on the tanks. Experts note that there is no shortage of fuel. There may be problems with the prompt delivery of fuel, they believe.

Over the past ten days, APU drones have hit three oil depots. The first to be hit on August 18 was an oil depot in Proletarsk, Rostov region. Today, on August 28, drones fell into Kotelnich, Kirov region and near Molodezhny in the Rostov region. Some oil depots belong to Rosrezerv.

The difference from previous attacks was that the Ukrainian Armed Forces actively practice repeated strikes. Drones fall with a time interval of up to several hours. And all oil depots were subjected to them. For example, four kamikaze drones flew to Kotelnich at once.

The impact on each tank farm led to a fire on the tanks. The most severe consequences are in Proletarsk. On the tenth day, the fire subsides, however, 20 out of 74 tanks burned down. Each can contain up to 5 thousand tons of petroleum products.

According to local telegram channels, one tank out of 32 was burning in Kotelnich, and the fire has already been extinguished. But under Molodezhny, the fire engulfed three tanks from the 51st, judging by satellite images, and does not subside.

The Russian expert community has long been discussing the protection of refineries and oil depots from drones. Some talk about the use of modern expensive systems, others cite the example of the Ukrainian experience, where pickups with heavy machine guns are on duty.

Meanwhile, the Russian fuel and energy complex is incurring billions of dollars in losses.

"Firstly, there are economic losses for the owners of oil products and tank farms. It is not known whether the fuel and the facilities themselves are insured," says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia.

He notes that Ukraine is trying to destroy stocks of finished fuel and there may be several targets.

"On the one hand, they may try to create a shortage of Russian troops. But this is unlikely to happen. Diesel fuel in There is a lot of Russia, and the government will insist on the priority of supplying troops. Therefore, it is not necessary to count on the fact that the tanks will stand up due to the lack of diesel fuel," says a leading FNEB analyst.

Another reason may be Kiev's desire to create a physical deficit, which may generate a wave of tension in society with socio-political consequences.

"But we don't see this and it doesn't come to a physical deficit," Igor Yushkov continues. — The main problem of strikes on oil depots is to deliver fuel to certain regions on time. Especially to the south. Last autumn, we saw a shortage of fuel in the region without any shocks or accidents, as part of the fuel goes to SMO and is actively consumed by agriculture — there is a harvesting campaign, which smoothly flows into the sowing campaign of winter crops. And this generates, first of all, a demand for diesel fuel. Last year there was such a situation that they did not have time to deliver fuel to certain areas and there was a shortage there."

There are no problems with diesel in Russia from the point of view of production, since if necessary, the government will force companies to reduce exports. And Russia supplies abroad half of the produced diesel fuel, the expert adds: "The situation with gasoline is even simpler, since its export in August and September is prohibited. Plus, the high car season ends by September."

"Therefore, there may be problems with the delivery of fuel if the tank farm has been destroyed and delivery from more remote bases and refineries is required. In this situation, there may be a problem with prompt delivery. The global shortage of neither gasoline nor diesel in I don't see Russia," said Igor Yushkov.

Judging by the data on fires at three oil depots, 120 thousand tons of oil products could be on fire (83% - in Proletarsk). If we compare them with the July data of the Russian Ministry of Energy, companies could lose 44% of the daily production of gasoline and diesel fuel in the country or 2% of their reserves.