Gas supply EU to Turkey: to Europe — more from Azerbaijan, and to itself — from Of Russia

The EU authorities suggest that Turkey resell Azerbaijani gas to the EU, which it imports. Instead, it bought more Russian gas. This was stated by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar. Experts believe that this does not contradict the idea of a gas hub in any way. Only the EU wants to have some guarantees so that Russian gas does not get to them for sure. Analysts doubt this prospect.

"Europe is trying to guarantee alternative gas supplies to replace the Russian ones that go through Ukraine. Some proposals include the idea that Turkey should redirect the Caspian gas it buys to the EU, and compensate for the falling volumes with additional purchases in Russia," writes Bloomberg with reference to Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.

As he told the agency, Turkey is ready to do this through Bulgaria by increasing the reverse capacity of the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline, but Ankara needs long-term guarantees of demand.

"I need this guarantee from you — 10 years, 15 years, whatever it is, you need to give something," Alparslan Bayraktar said.

Offers He called the EU's swaps (gas exchanges) in order for the European Union to avoid importing Russian fuel complicated and would like to avoid them.

"These discussions are conducted without knowledge of the market and capacities. What we need is an increase in the capacity of the Turkey-Bulgaria interconnector, since currently it can pump only half of the 7 billion cubic meters per year that Turkey can technically supply," said the head of the Turkish Ministry of Energy.

Alparslan Bayraktar added that Turkey could come to an agreement with Azerbaijan and increase the volume to 10 billion cubic meters, but wants to get guarantees in Europe.

Last year, Azerbaijan supplied 6 billion cubic meters to Turkey and about 12 billion cubic meters to Europe. The gas comes from two phases of the Shah Deniz field. Gas production in Azerbaijan is limited. Additionally, Baku can arrange supplies from the Absheron field, which began to be developed last year with French TotalEnergies. The fishing capacity is expected to reach 5 billion cubic meters per year. From time to time, Socar resorts to swaps with Gazprom, which supplies gas to Azerbaijan in winter and receives compensation in summer.

Energy Aspects consultants commented that political and physical constraints are too difficult to replace Russian gas flowing through Ukraine with Azerbaijani gas: "It will be difficult for Azerbaijan to increase domestic production in order to ensure any significant additional supplies to Europe next year."

The Turkish Minister also said that last summer and winter Turkey and Russia has agreed on special gas prices regardless of the usual price formula in the contract between Gazprom and Botas: "Depending on market conditions, consumption volumes, import volumes, sometimes the seller, sometimes the buyer may make different offers."

The EPDK regulator indicates in its reports for 2024 that some of the Russian gas is supplied by spot, and not by long-term contracts.

Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NSF), sees no difficulties in organizing the supply of additional volumes of Azerbaijani gas from Turkey to Europe.

"Actually, the idea with the Turkish hub is about that. The gas is sold, a Turkish mixture is obtained, which then enters Europe. This is on paper, but physically, everything is as it was before. Another thing is that Turkey wants a share for services, and the question is who to get it from, in what volume and in what form," says the deputy director of the National Security Fund.

In 2025, the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will cease to be valid. Kiev says they do not want to extend the agreement, but are ready to meet the EU halfway. In 2023, they applied to the countries through Ukraine The EU and Moldova have 14.65 billion cubic meters of Russian gas.

In the European Union, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria and Italy receive fuel through Ukraine. Moreover, the share of Russian gas in Austria and Slovakia exceeds 50%.

At the same time, Ukraine wants to remain a transit country and earn money and, as reported by European agencies, the EU and Kiev is discussing several other options: supplies via Russia and Ukraine of Azerbaijani gas and the creation of a European consortium that will book Ukrainian transit for fuel from Of Russia.

Alexey Grivach notes that it is not written on the molecules that they are Russian.

"That's how they want to call transit through Ukraine Azerbaijani gas," says the deputy director of the National Oil and Gas Corporation.

Officially, Brussels itself announces plans to abandon Russian gas in 2027, and European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson does not tire of repeating that Ukrainian transit can not be extended, since there are alternative sources.