Chaos — what is happening in Strait of Hormuz

The situation in The Strait of Hormuz, despite the agreement between the United States and Iran remains "very chaotic," Matthew Wright, chief freight analyst at Kpler, which tracks global shipping, said on CNN.

The channel noted that now there are three routes in the strait: the southern one — off the coast of Oman, the central one — it was used before the war, as well as the northern one, which is controlled by Iran. The shipowners found themselves in conditions of uncertainty and fear attacks from Iran if they do not choose the route agreed with Tehran, and US sanctions for interaction with the Iranian authorities. Vessels that choose the route through Oman face an increased risk of accidents due to the fact that they pass close to each other.

"All this is very confusing for safe navigation in these waters," said Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of marine risk consulting company Marisks. According to him, "the current environment is extremely dangerous."

Agreement of the US authorities and Iran is not reflected in the real situation at sea, Wright and Maniatis say. Iran insists on its right to manage the strait, and the new Iranian Persian Gulf Waterways Authority (PGSA) requires vessels to fill out a form to obtain a "guarantee of safe passage."

"We proceed from a state of deep mistrust between the parties, so the agreement is a good first step. But obviously there is a big gap between what the US is saying and what the Iranians are saying... we are in a very chaotic period," Wright said.

As RBC reminds, on June 25, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned the ships that they were responsible for any consequences when passing through the strait without permission or outside the established route. A few hours after that, the container ship Ever Lovely was attacked by an Iranian drone. US President Donald Trump called the attack "a stupid violation of our ceasefire agreement." On June 26, the United States attacked Iranian missile and UAV storage sites, as well as coastal radars. It was noted that the attack was a response to a strike on a commercial vessel. In turn, the IRGC Naval Forces on the night of June 27 attacked the locations of the US army in the Middle East. Then another tanker was hit by unknown forces.