In 14 years, American LNG will have nothing to do in Europe: there is a plan in the EU

The European Union has been making plans for accelerated electrification and reduction of gas consumption for several years. The Franco-Belgian center Strategic Perspectives believes that after 14 years the country The EU may refuse to import LNG, which will be an unpleasant surprise for existing and future gas liquefaction plants in the United States.

The European Union imports up to 60% of energy and remains one of the most dependent economies in the world. After the start of SMO deliveries of Russian gas to The EU fell, and oil stopped. However, the European Union has already become dependent on the United States. Brussels has been planning an accelerated energy transition for several years, thanks to which the consumption of fossil fuels will decrease sharply. The idea is to maximize electrification through renewable energy and transfer other industries from gas to green hydrogen.

Strategic Perspectives predicts that by 2040 the European Union may stop importing LNG and keep only supplies from Norway and Great Britain.

"Over the past decade, the level of electrification in the European Union has stopped at about 23% of the final energy consumption, leaving a huge potential untapped. Our analysis shows that by 2040 The EU will be able to electrify about half of its economy, reducing dependence on fossil fuels by two-thirds and providing net savings of 29 billion euros per year by reducing fuel imports and system costs. This is not just a security imperative, it is also a key industrial strategy," Strategic Perspectives researchers believe.

According to their forecast, to meet the electrification needs, the deployment of about 80 GW of renewable energy sources per year until 2040 will be required, which is close to the more than 70 GW already installed in 2025.

"Based on this trajectory, the EU has a concrete way to drastically reduce dependence on gas imports by 2040. As the demand for gas decreases to about 30% of today's level, the European Union may gradually break its most unreliable supply chains," the research center said in a report.

By unreliable they mean the supply of Russian gas, LNG and imports from Algeria, Azerbaijan and Libya.

"By 2040, residual gas needs can be met through the EU's most reliable regional sources: Norway (53%), domestic production in the EU (35%) and the UK (12%)," Strategic Perspectives writes.

They believe that the strategic choice is quite simple: either to agree on demand reduction, capital allocation and partnerships through electrification, or to allow investments already made in gas to determine Europe's energy vulnerability as early as the 2030s.

Strategic Perspectives is not the first research center that predicts a reduction in gas consumption in the EU. Similar forecasts and plans were made by the European regulator and the International Energy Agency. The only difference is in the amount of reduction.

Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NWF), notes that the strategy for electrification and abandonment of gas has actually been announced, based on the legally established requirement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040.

"Another thing is that there is a question of whether it will be possible to achieve it (while the target for 2030 to reduce by 55% does not look particularly achievable) and how much British and Norwegian gas will be available in 15 years. In Britain, production is actively falling, and in Norway's reserves are rapidly being depleted," the expert notes.